# Will Jayson Tatum record the most total points in the Philadelphia vs Boston 1st Round series in the 2026 Pro Basketball Playoffs

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 24% across 6 contracts — refreshed 6 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nbaseriesptsleader
Updated: 2026-05-03T17:21:00.862Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-17

## Headline

- Probability: 24% (liquidity-weighted across 6 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $112

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan Mitchell | 26¢ | ±0 | $100 | kalshi | /markets/will-donovan-mitchell-record-the-most-total-points-kalshi-kxnbaseriesptsleader-26torcler1-cledmit |
| Scottie Barnes | 13¢ | −6pp | $13 | kalshi | /markets/will-scottie-barnes-record-the-most-total-points-i-kalshi-kxnbaseriesptsleader-26torcler1-torsbar |
| Paolo Banchero | 8¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-paolo-banchero-record-the-most-total-points-i-kalshi-kxnbaseriesptsleader-26orldetr1-orlpban |
| Jalen Duren | 7¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jalen-duren-record-the-most-total-points-in-t-kalshi-kxnbaseriesptsleader-26orldetr1-detjdur |
| Cade Cunningham | 79¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cade-cunningham-record-the-most-total-points-kalshi-kxnbaseriesptsleader-26orldetr1-detccun |
| RJ Barrett | 11¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-rj-barrett-record-the-most-total-points-in-th-kalshi-kxnbaseriesptsleader-26torcler1-torrbar |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-15 | 50 |
| 2026-04-19 | 47 |
| 2026-04-26 | 33 |
| 2026-05-03 | 21 |

_17 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-27 · Donovan Mitchell −38pp 55→17¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-29 · Donovan Mitchell +36pp 14→50¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-28 · Cade Cunningham +34pp 41→75¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-27 · Cade Cunningham −31pp 72→41¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-30 · Donovan Mitchell −22pp 50→28¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market asks whether Jayson Tatum will lead both teams in scoring across a best-of-seven first-round series between the Philadelphia 76ers and Boston Celtics in 2026. At 42%, the probability reflects moderate confidence in Tatum achieving this outcome. The current level is driven by Tatum's established scoring capabilities as a franchise cornerstone but tempered by uncertainty about teammate contributions, defensive assignments, and series composition. The series itself will determine this conclusively when played, likely occurring in April-May 2026. Key variables include how much offensive volume Tatum receives relative to teammates, whether the 76ers' defense can limit his scoring efficiency, and the overall pacing and style of play that emerges in the matchup.

### Key factors

- Tatum's average scoring relative to Celtics teammates and 76ers' leading scorer in regular season performance
- The defensive schemes and assignment patterns each team deploys, particularly who guards Tatum and how often he faces double teams
- Whether injuries or rest management affect either team's rotation or Tatum's playing time during the series
- Historical scoring patterns in previous Celtics-76ers playoff matchups and typical first-round offensive distributions
- The pace of play and three-point volume that develops during the series, as these directly influence total point accumulation

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nbaseriesptsleader
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nbaseriesptsleader

## License

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