# Will Devin Vassell start the game for the San Antonio Pro Basketball team in their first game of the 2026-27 regular season

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 53% across 19 contracts — refreshed 1 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nbastarters
Updated: 2026-08-10T07:20:52.646Z
Category: sports
Status: active
Closes: 2026-11-07

## Headline

- Probability: 53% (liquidity-weighted across 19 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (19 contracts)
- 24h volume: $10

## Bound contracts (19)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yaxel Lendeborg | 63¢ | — | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-yaxel-lendeborg-start-the-game-for-the-golden-kalshi-kxnbastarters-26octgsw-ylendeborg1 |
| Christian Braun | 75¢ | −4pp | $2 | kalshi | /markets/will-christian-braun-start-the-game-for-the-denver-kalshi-kxnbastarters-26octden-cbraun0 |
| Sandro Mamukelashvili | 64¢ | −3pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-sandro-mamukelashvili-start-the-game-for-the-kalshi-kxnbastarters-26octlal-smamukelashvili54 |
| Quentin Grimes | 66¢ | +6pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-quentin-grimes-start-the-game-for-the-los-ang-kalshi-kxnbastarters-26octlal-qgrimes5 |
| Derrick White | 90¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-derrick-white-start-the-game-for-the-boston-p-kalshi-kxnbastarters-26octbos-dwhite9 |
| Hugo González | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-hugo-gonzlez-start-the-game-for-the-boston-pr-kalshi-kxnbastarters-26octbos-hgonzalez28 |
| Jayson Tatum | 85¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jayson-tatum-start-the-game-for-the-boston-pr-kalshi-kxnbastarters-26octbos-jtatum0 |
| Jordan Walsh | 16¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jordan-walsh-start-the-game-for-the-boston-pr-kalshi-kxnbastarters-26octbos-jwalsh27 |
| Mike Conley | 6¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-mike-conley-start-the-game-for-the-boston-pro-kalshi-kxnbastarters-26octbos-mconley44 |
| Mitchell Robinson | 19¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-mitchell-robinson-start-the-game-for-the-bost-kalshi-kxnbastarters-26octbos-mrobinson4 |
| Neemias Queta | 70¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-neemias-queta-start-the-game-for-the-boston-p-kalshi-kxnbastarters-26octbos-nqueta88 |
| Paul George | 78¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-paul-george-start-the-game-for-the-boston-pro-kalshi-kxnbastarters-26octbos-pgeorge13 |
| Payton Pritchard | 68¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-payton-pritchard-start-the-game-for-the-bosto-kalshi-kxnbastarters-26octbos-ppritchard11 |
| Sam Hauser | 29¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-sam-hauser-start-the-game-for-the-boston-pro-kalshi-kxnbastarters-26octbos-shauser30 |
| Cooper Flagg | 93¢ | +6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cooper-flagg-start-the-game-for-the-dallas-pr-kalshi-kxnbastarters-26octdal-cflagg32 |
| Daniel Gafford | 65¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-daniel-gafford-start-the-game-for-the-dallas-kalshi-kxnbastarters-26octdal-dgafford21 |
| Dereck Lively II | 20¢ | −18pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-dereck-lively-ii-start-the-game-for-the-dalla-kalshi-kxnbastarters-26octdal-dlively2 |
| Kyrie Irving | 89¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-kyrie-irving-start-the-game-for-the-dallas-pr-kalshi-kxnbastarters-26octdal-kirving11 |
| Klay Thompson | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-klay-thompson-start-the-game-for-the-dallas-p-kalshi-kxnbastarters-26octdal-kthompson31 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 | 62 |
| 2026-08-03 | 47 |
| 2026-08-08 | 67 |

_8 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-03 · Dereck Lively II −18pp 28→10¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-08 · Quentin Grimes +6pp 61→67¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-03 · Payton Pritchard +6pp 59→65¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-03 · Cooper Flagg +6pp 79→85¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-03 · Sandro Mamukelashvili −5pp 73→68¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This represents a 63% probability that Devin Vassell will be in the San Antonio Spurs' starting lineup for their opening game of the 2026-27 season. The current level reflects Vassell's established role as a key rotation player, though the projection leaves meaningful uncertainty about potential roster changes, injuries, or coaching decisions during the offseason and preseason. The main drivers are Vassell's recent performance trajectory and team depth at his position. The probability will move significantly closer to resolution when the Spurs announce their opening night roster following preseason games in October 2026. Any major injuries to San Antonio's wings, trades involving Vassell, or significant changes to the coaching staff would create material upside or downside from the current level.

### Key factors

- Vassell averaged 13.7 points and appeared in 54 games in the 2025-26 season, establishing baseline expectations for his role in 2026-27
- No reported trade rumors or significant roster moves involving Vassell as of late July 2026 suggest continuity in his status
- The Spurs' depth chart at shooting guard and small forward positions will determine competing candidates for starting slots during preseason
- Preseason performance from September through early October 2026 typically influences first-game starting lineups and will provide direct evidence before the resolution date
- Coaching staff changes or strategic lineup adjustments after the 2025-26 season could alter starting rotations regardless of player performance

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nbastarters
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nbastarters

## License

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