# Will Golden State Gold win the Los Angeles L vs Golden State Gold Summer League game originally scheduled for Jul 3, 2026

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 24% across 20 contracts — refreshed 10 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nbasummergame
Updated: 2026-07-09T23:20:51.114Z
Category: sports
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-25

## Headline

- Probability: 24% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $4K

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston | 43¢ | +4pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-boston-win-the-boston-vs-toronto-summer-leagu-kalshi-kxnbasummergame-26jul10bostor-bos |
| Chicago | 17¢ | +5pp | $684 | kalshi | /markets/will-chicago-win-the-chicago-vs-memphis-summer-lea-kalshi-kxnbasummergame-26jul10chimem-chi |
| Los Angeles L | 51¢ | +10pp | $612 | kalshi | /markets/will-los-angeles-l-win-the-oklahoma-city-vs-los-an-kalshi-kxnbasummergame-26jul10okclal-lal |
| Toronto | 50¢ | +19pp | $597 | kalshi | /markets/will-toronto-win-the-boston-vs-toronto-summer-leag-kalshi-kxnbasummergame-26jul10bostor-tor |
| Oklahoma City | 47¢ | +20pp | $167 | kalshi | /markets/will-oklahoma-city-win-the-oklahoma-city-vs-los-an-kalshi-kxnbasummergame-26jul10okclal-okc |
| Indiana | 11¢ | +3pp | $16 | kalshi | /markets/will-indiana-win-the-toronto-vs-indiana-summer-lea-kalshi-kxnbasummergame-26jul13torind-ind |
| Memphis | 21¢ | +5pp | $9 | kalshi | /markets/will-memphis-win-the-chicago-vs-memphis-summer-lea-kalshi-kxnbasummergame-26jul10chimem-mem |
| Phoenix | 6¢ | −1pp | $3 | kalshi | /markets/will-phoenix-win-the-portland-vs-phoenix-summer-le-kalshi-kxnbasummergame-26jul10porphx-phx |
| Portland | 34¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-portland-win-the-portland-vs-phoenix-summer-l-kalshi-kxnbasummergame-26jul10porphx-por |
| Atlanta | 14¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-atlanta-win-the-atlanta-vs-brooklyn-summer-le-kalshi-kxnbasummergame-26jul11atlbkn-atl |
| Brooklyn | 49¢ | +28pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-brooklyn-win-the-atlanta-vs-brooklyn-summer-l-kalshi-kxnbasummergame-26jul11atlbkn-bkn |
| Denver | 15¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-denver-win-the-denver-vs-minnesota-summer-lea-kalshi-kxnbasummergame-26jul11denmin-den |
| Minnesota | 15¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-minnesota-win-the-denver-vs-minnesota-summer-kalshi-kxnbasummergame-26jul11denmin-min |
| Houston | 14¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-houston-win-the-houston-vs-toronto-summer-lea-kalshi-kxnbasummergame-26jul11houtor-hou |
| Toronto | 14¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-toronto-win-the-houston-vs-toronto-summer-lea-kalshi-kxnbasummergame-26jul11houtor-tor |
| Indiana | 15¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-indiana-win-the-indiana-vs-philadelphia-summe-kalshi-kxnbasummergame-26jul11indphi-ind |
| Philadelphia | 15¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-philadelphia-win-the-indiana-vs-philadelphia-kalshi-kxnbasummergame-26jul11indphi-phi |
| Dallas | 14¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-dallas-win-the-los-angeles-l-vs-dallas-summer-kalshi-kxnbasummergame-26jul11laldal-dal |
| Los Angeles L | 14¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-los-angeles-l-win-the-los-angeles-l-vs-dallas-kalshi-kxnbasummergame-26jul11laldal-lal |
| Miami | 16¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-miami-win-the-miami-vs-orlando-summer-league-kalshi-kxnbasummergame-26jul11miaorl-mia |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-06 | 9 |
| 2026-07-07 | 10 |
| 2026-07-08 | 15 |
| 2026-07-09 | 21 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-08 · Memphis +38pp 11→49¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-09 · Brooklyn +28pp 19→47¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-09 · Oklahoma City +20pp 14→34¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-09 · Toronto +19pp 15→34¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-09 · Los Angeles L +10pp 11→21¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market reflects a near-even assessment of whether Golden State Gold will defeat Los Angeles L in their Summer League matchup on July 3, 2026. The 49% probability indicates substantial uncertainty about the outcome, with trading showing meaningful disagreement—the companion contract for Los Angeles L winning trades at 51%, suggesting traders view both teams as roughly evenly matched. Summer League outcomes are driven primarily by roster composition, player health and availability, coaching decisions about playing time, and momentum from recent performances. The game itself serves as the resolution event, making actual tipoff and final score the key catalyst that will determine the contract's outcome.

### Key factors

- Golden State Gold contract trades at 45¢ while Los Angeles L contract trades at 51¢, indicating near-parity but slight lean toward Los Angeles L
- Summer League games feature largely young, prospects and reserve players with less predictable performance patterns than regular season NBA contests
- Trading volume on the Golden State contract ($298 24h vol) substantially exceeds the Los Angeles L contract ($8 24h vol), suggesting more active interest in one side
- Both teams' current roster availability and which prospects are playing would meaningfully influence win probability but appear stable enough for traders to price near even odds
- Game occurs on July 3, 2026—the scheduled date provides clear resolution point with no apparent postponement or cancellation indicators in current market pricing

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nbasummergame
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nbasummergame

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.