# Will Chicago win the 2026 Pro Basketball Draft Lottery

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 10% across 9 contracts — refreshed 13 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nbatoppick
Updated: 2026-05-03T15:05:51.268Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2028-10-31

## Headline

- Probability: 10% (liquidity-weighted across 9 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $5K

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Utah | 11¢ | +1pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/will-utah-win-the-2026-pro-basketball-draft-lotter-kalshi-kxnbatoppick-26-uta |
| Chicago | 5¢ | ±0 | $182 | kalshi | /markets/will-chicago-win-the-2026-pro-basketball-draft-lot-kalshi-kxnbatoppick-26-chi |
| Washington | 13¢ | ±0 | $145 | kalshi | /markets/will-washington-win-the-2026-pro-basketball-draft-kalshi-kxnbatoppick-26-was |
| Brooklyn | 13¢ | +1pp | $132 | kalshi | /markets/will-brooklyn-win-the-2026-pro-basketball-draft-lo-kalshi-kxnbatoppick-26-bkn |
| Indiana | 13¢ | ±0 | $121 | kalshi | /markets/will-indiana-win-the-2026-pro-basketball-draft-lot-kalshi-kxnbatoppick-26-ind |
| Dallas | 6¢ | +1pp | $28 | kalshi | /markets/will-dallas-win-the-2026-pro-basketball-draft-lott-kalshi-kxnbatoppick-26-dal |
| Atlanta | 8¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-atlanta-win-the-2026-pro-basketball-draft-lot-kalshi-kxnbatoppick-26-atl |
| Memphis | 8¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-memphis-win-the-2026-pro-basketball-draft-lot-kalshi-kxnbatoppick-26-mem |
| Sacramento | 11¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-sacramento-win-the-2026-pro-basketball-draft-kalshi-kxnbatoppick-26-sac |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 7 |
| 2026-04-19 | 11 |
| 2026-04-26 | 8 |
| 2026-04-30 | 8 |

_21 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

The 10% probability reflects market expectations that Chicago has a one-in-ten chance of winning the 2026 NBA Draft Lottery. The lottery determines draft order based on weighted odds favoring teams with worse records, and Chicago's relatively low probability suggests traders believe the team is not among the worst-performing teams entering the lottery drawing. The lottery drawing date would provide the definitive resolution, as it mechanically determines winners regardless of prior expectations. Movements in this probability would likely respond to actual season standings changes, injuries to key players affecting win-loss records, or significant roster transactions that alter team competitiveness heading into the lottery calculation period.

### Key factors

- Chicago's current NBA standings position relative to other lottery teams—worse records receive higher odds, so teams ranking bottom-3 would have substantially higher probabilities
- Whether Chicago makes roster moves or trades before the lottery cutoff that could impact their final season record and lottery odds weighting
- The health status of key Chicago players, particularly star-level contributors whose availability directly affects win-loss outcomes
- Market pricing across related contracts shows San Antonio (23¢) and Philadelphia (13¢) as favorites in their respective categories, suggesting differentiated confidence in outcomes affecting lottery positioning
- The lottery drawing mechanism is fixed by rule, making this a pure odds-based probability dependent entirely on final standings determination

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nbatoppick
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nbatoppick

## License

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