# Will Zion Williamson be traded after Issuance and before Feb 12, 2027

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 21% across 9 contracts — refreshed 30 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nbatrade
Updated: 2026-06-26T01:20:49.885Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-02-12

## Headline

- Probability: 21% (liquidity-weighted across 9 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2K

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LaMelo Ball | 97¢ | +45pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-lamelo-ball-be-traded-after-issuance-and-befo-kalshi-kxnbatrade-27feb12-lball1 |
| Jaylen Brown | 41¢ | −8pp | $19 | kalshi | /markets/will-jaylen-brown-be-traded-after-issuance-and-bef-kalshi-kxnbatrade-27feb12-jbrown7 |
| Kawhi Leonard | 3¢ | −3pp | $10 | kalshi | /markets/will-kawhi-leonard-be-traded-after-issuance-and-be-kalshi-kxnbatrade-27feb12-kleonard2 |
| Nic Claxton | 8¢ | −11pp | $10 | kalshi | /markets/will-nic-claxton-be-traded-after-issuance-and-befo-kalshi-kxnbatrade-27feb12-nclaxton33 |
| Rudy Gobert | 6¢ | −5pp | $6 | kalshi | /markets/will-rudy-gobert-be-traded-after-issuance-and-befo-kalshi-kxnbatrade-27feb12-rgobert27 |
| Luguentz Dort | 22¢ | +8pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-luguentz-dort-be-traded-after-issuance-and-be-kalshi-kxnbatrade-27feb12-ldort5 |
| Donte DiVincenzo | 6¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-donte-divincenzo-be-traded-after-issuance-and-kalshi-kxnbatrade-27feb12-ddivincenzo0 |
| De'Aaron Fox | 4¢ | −5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-deaaron-fox-be-traded-after-issuance-and-befo-kalshi-kxnbatrade-27feb12-dfox4 |
| Daniel Gafford | 6¢ | −10pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-daniel-gafford-be-traded-after-issuance-and-b-kalshi-kxnbatrade-27feb12-dgafford21 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-23 | 15 |
| 2026-06-24 | 8 |
| 2026-06-25 | 16 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-25 · LaMelo Ball +45pp 2→47¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Rudy Gobert −17pp 27→10¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Luguentz Dort −12pp 20→8¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · Nic Claxton −11pp 19→8¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Daniel Gafford −10pp 13→3¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This prediction estimates a 5% chance that Zion Williamson will be traded between now and February 12, 2027. The low probability reflects Williamson's status as a cornerstone player for the New Orleans Pelicans and the lack of public indication that the franchise intends to move him. The main factors keeping this probability low are his recent contract extension and the Pelicans' stated commitment to building around him. The probability could rise if the Pelicans suffer significant injuries, miss the playoffs, or if Williamson's own injury history causes front-office reassessment. The key event to monitor is the Pelicans' performance and health through the 2026-27 season, particularly any announcements from team management regarding roster direction.

### Key factors

- Williamson signed a multi-year supermax extension with the Pelicans in 2023, signaling long-term organizational commitment
- Williamson has missed substantial time due to recurring injuries (foot, hamstring), which could influence trade discussions if durability concerns escalate
- New Orleans' playoff performance and win-loss record through mid-February would indicate whether the front office views a roster change as necessary
- No credible reporting from league sources has suggested the Pelicans are exploring trade options for Williamson as of mid-2026
- Similar guards on comparable long-term deals traded recently (Joe, Dort) had lower market prices, suggesting limited bidding appetite even for star players with injury concerns

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nbatrade
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nbatrade

## License

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