# Will the Atlanta Pro Basketball team win at least 20 games in the 2026-27 regular season

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 35% across 20 contracts — refreshed 45 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nbawins
Updated: 2026-07-27T06:20:49.140Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-05-08

## Headline

- Probability: 35% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $24K

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50+ wins | 55¢ | −7pp | $6K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-philadelphia-pro-basketball-team-win-at-l-kalshi-kxnbawins-27phi-50 |
| 25+ wins | 61¢ | +10pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-brooklyn-pro-basketball-team-win-at-least-kalshi-kxnbawins-27bkn-25 |
| 50+ wins | 11¢ | +2pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-utah-pro-basketball-team-win-at-least-50-kalshi-kxnbawins-27uta-50 |
| 40+ wins | 33¢ | −2pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-washington-pro-basketball-team-win-at-lea-kalshi-kxnbawins-27was-40 |
| 55+ wins | 29¢ | +1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-philadelphia-pro-basketball-team-win-at-l-kalshi-kxnbawins-27phi-55 |
| 60+ wins | 15¢ | ±0 | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-philadelphia-pro-basketball-team-win-at-l-kalshi-kxnbawins-27phi-60 |
| 30+ wins | 41¢ | −18pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-washington-pro-basketball-team-win-at-lea-kalshi-kxnbawins-27was-30 |
| 30+ wins | 39¢ | −3pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-new-orleans-pro-basketball-team-win-at-le-kalshi-kxnbawins-27nop-30 |
| 65+ wins | 3¢ | −1pp | $926 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-philadelphia-pro-basketball-team-win-at-l-kalshi-kxnbawins-27phi-65 |
| 40+ wins | 43¢ | ±0 | $925 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-utah-pro-basketball-team-win-at-least-40-kalshi-kxnbawins-27uta-40 |
| 45+ wins | 14¢ | −5pp | $922 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-washington-pro-basketball-team-win-at-lea-kalshi-kxnbawins-27was-45 |
| 50+ wins | 55¢ | +7pp | $536 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-boston-pro-basketball-team-record-at-leas-kalshi-kxnbawins-27bos-50 |
| 25+ wins | 34¢ | +1pp | $137 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-sacramento-pro-basketball-team-win-at-lea-kalshi-kxnbawins-27sac-25 |
| 45+ wins | 18¢ | −3pp | $58 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-utah-pro-basketball-team-win-at-least-45-kalshi-kxnbawins-27uta-45 |
| 45+ wins | 50¢ | −1pp | $10 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-orlando-pro-basketball-team-win-at-least-kalshi-kxnbawins-27orl-45 |
| 35+ wins | 8¢ | +4pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-brooklyn-pro-basketball-team-win-at-least-kalshi-kxnbawins-27bkn-35 |
| 55+ wins | 70¢ | −6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-san-antonio-pro-basketball-team-win-at-le-kalshi-kxnbawins-27sas-55 |
| 40+ wins | 23¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-dallas-pro-basketball-team-win-at-least-4-kalshi-kxnbawins-27dal-40 |
| 45+ wins | 46¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-los-angeles-l-pro-basketball-team-win-at-kalshi-kxnbawins-27lal-45 |
| 45+ wins | 51¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-miami-pro-basketball-team-win-at-least-45-kalshi-kxnbawins-27mia-45 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-07 | 15 |
| 2026-07-13 | 25 |
| 2026-07-20 | 33 |
| 2026-07-27 | 32 |

_21 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-21 · 25+ wins +35pp 18→53¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-23 · 25+ wins −35pp 62→27¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-22 · 25+ wins +28pp 34→62¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-23 · 25+ wins −20pp 48→28¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-25 · 25+ wins +19pp 15→34¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market estimates a 56% chance that the Atlanta Hawks will win at least 20 games during the 2026-27 NBA season. The current probability reflects moderate uncertainty about the team's competitiveness next season. Key drivers include the team's roster composition heading into 2026-27, coaching decisions, and injury status of core players—factors that typically stabilize as training camp approaches in October 2026. The season itself begins in late October 2026, at which point actual win-loss performance will gradually resolve this uncertainty over the subsequent months.

### Key factors

- Atlanta Hawks' roster moves and free agency acquisitions during summer 2026 will directly impact competitive capability
- Current youth-focused roster versus veteran acquisitions will determine whether the team exceeds the 20-win threshold
- Injury status of key players entering the 2026-27 season, particularly any major roster pieces, affects win projection
- Coach and front office personnel decisions made before October 2026 training camp will influence tactical approach and player development
- Historical 2025-26 season performance and win total will serve as a baseline for projecting 2026-27 results

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nbawins
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nbawins

## License

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