# Will it be confirmed that No one is the NC-11 Republican nominee on Aug 11, 2026

> Jennifer Balkcom leads at 34%, runner-up 29% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nc11nomaug
Updated: 2026-08-09T23:20:51.128Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-08-11

## Headline

- Leader: Jennifer Balkcom at 34%
- Runner-up: Adam Smith at 29%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2K

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jennifer Balkcom | 34¢ | +12pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-it-be-confirmed-that-jennifer-balkcom-is-the-kalshi-kxnc11nomaug-26aug11-jbal |
| Adam Smith | 29¢ | −3pp | $572 | kalshi | /markets/will-it-be-confirmed-that-adam-smith-is-the-nc-11-kalshi-kxnc11nomaug-26aug11-asmi |
| No one | 12¢ | −5pp | $542 | kalshi | /markets/will-it-be-confirmed-that-no-one-is-the-nc-11-repu-kalshi-kxnc11nomaug-26aug11-noone |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Jennifer Balkcom | Adam Smith | No one |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | 13 | 13 | 13 |
| 2026-08-06 | 10 | 10 | 9 |
| 2026-08-08 | 6 | 7 | 10 |
| 2026-08-09 | 18 | — | 5 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-09 · Jennifer Balkcom +12pp 6→18¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-09 · No one −5pp 10→5¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-08 · Jennifer Balkcom −4pp 10→6¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-06 · No one −4pp 13→9¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-06 · Jennifer Balkcom −3pp 13→10¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects the current market estimate that no Republican nominee will be officially confirmed for North Carolina's 11th congressional district by August 11, 2026. Tim Moffitt is the market-leading candidate at 56 cents, suggesting most traders expect a nominee to be selected rather than an empty outcome. The 'no one' outcome at 7 cents indicates relatively low concern about procedural failure or missed deadlines. The key driver is whether the NC Republican Party completes its nomination process by the deadline—either through a primary, convention, or other established mechanism. The resolution hinges on official confirmation rather than preliminary results. August 11, 2026 is the specific date when confirmation must occur; any delay beyond that date or procedural breakdown would resolve this contract affirmatively.

### Key factors

- Tim Moffitt's 56-cent price (vs. 7 cents for 'no one') suggests traders assign roughly 80% probability to a nominee being confirmed by August 11
- The 'no one' contract has minimal trading volume ($61 in 24 hours), indicating low liquidity and potentially weak conviction behind the low price
- NC-11 Republican nomination procedures and their timeline determine whether August 11 is sufficient for formal confirmation of a nominee
- No candidate besides Moffitt trades above 8 cents, consolidating market belief around a single frontrunner rather than wide-open race
- Historical data on NC Republican Party nomination timelines and whether August 11 represents an early, on-schedule, or late confirmation date

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nc11nomaug
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nc11nomaug
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.