# Will Ole Miss win the College Baseball World Series

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 8% across 8 contracts — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ncaabaseball
Updated: 2026-05-03T15:20:56.006Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-03

## Headline

- Probability: 8% (liquidity-weighted across 8 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (8 contracts)
- 24h volume: $34K

## Bound contracts (8)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas A&M | 5¢ | −2pp | $13K | kalshi | /markets/will-texas-am-win-the-college-baseball-world-serie-kalshi-kxncaabaseball-26-txam |
| UCLA | 17¢ | ±0 | $6K | kalshi | /markets/will-ucla-win-the-college-baseball-world-series-uc-kalshi-kxncaabaseball-26-ucla |
| Texas | 10¢ | −1pp | $5K | kalshi | /markets/will-texas-win-the-college-baseball-world-series-t-kalshi-kxncaabaseball-26-tex |
| Auburn | 5¢ | +1pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/will-auburn-win-the-college-baseball-world-series-kalshi-kxncaabaseball-26-aub |
| North Carolina | 7¢ | −2pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-north-carolina-win-the-college-baseball-world-kalshi-kxncaabaseball-26-unc |
| Georgia | 5¢ | ±0 | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-georgia-win-the-college-baseball-world-series-kalshi-kxncaabaseball-26-uga |
| Mississippi St. | 5¢ | −1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-mississippi-st-win-the-college-baseball-world-kalshi-kxncaabaseball-26-msst |
| Georgia Tech | 10¢ | ±0 | $633 | kalshi | /markets/will-georgia-tech-win-the-college-baseball-world-s-kalshi-kxncaabaseball-26-gt |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 6 |
| 2026-04-19 | 8 |
| 2026-04-26 | 9 |
| 2026-05-03 | 7 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

Ole Miss is currently assigned an 8% probability of winning the College Baseball World Series, based on aggregated contract prices from prediction markets. This reflects market participants' assessment that the Rebels have a roughly 1-in-12 chance of capturing the national championship. The probability is driven by team performance metrics, roster strength, and comparative odds against other contenders like Texas A&M (4%) and UCLA (16%). The College Baseball World Series in June will definitively resolve this market, as the tournament determines the national champion. Factors influencing the probability include Ole Miss's regular-season record, pitching depth, offensive output, and seeding position entering the postseason, all of which affect their tournament trajectory and path to Omaha.

### Key factors

- Ole Miss's NCAA tournament seeding and bracket placement relative to other top programs
- Team batting average, earned run average, and win-loss record compared to other College World Series contenders
- Injury status of key players and availability of starting pitchers for tournament play
- Historical performance of Ole Miss baseball in postseason play and tournament environments
- Strength of schedule and recent form heading into the College Baseball World Series in June 2026

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ncaabaseball
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ncaabaseball

## License

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