# Who will win Golden Spikes Award

> Roch Cholowsky leads at 24%, runner-up 5% across 16 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ncaabbgs
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:39.812Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-08-02

## Headline

- Leader: Roch Cholowsky at 24%
- Runner-up: Derek Curiel at 5%
- Outcomes: 16 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (16 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (16)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roch Cholowsky | 24¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-golden-spikes-award-roch-cholowsky-kalshi-kxncaabbgs-26-rcho |
| Derek Curiel | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-golden-spikes-award-derek-curiel-kalshi-kxncaabbgs-26-dcur |
| Kenny Ishikawa | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-golden-spikes-award-kenny-ishikawa-kalshi-kxncaabbgs-26-kish |
| Cameron Flukey | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-golden-spikes-award-cameron-flukey-kalshi-kxncaabbgs-26-cflu |
| Dylan Volantis | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-golden-spikes-award-dylan-volantis-kalshi-kxncaabbgs-26-dvol |
| Adrian Rodriguez | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-golden-spikes-award-adrian-rodriguez-kalshi-kxncaabbgs-26-arod |
| Gabe Gaeckle | 4¢ | — | $500 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-golden-spikes-award-gabe-gaeckle-kalshi-kxncaabbgs-26-ggae |
| Tyler Bell | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-golden-spikes-award-tyler-bell-kalshi-kxncaabbgs-26-tbel |
| Gavin Grahovac | 4¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-golden-spikes-award-gavin-grahovac-kalshi-kxncaabbgs-26-ggra |
| Sawyer Strosnider | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-golden-spikes-award-sawyer-strosnider-kalshi-kxncaabbgs-26-sstr |
| Brendan Lawson | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-golden-spikes-award-brendan-lawson-kalshi-kxncaabbgs-26-blaw |
| Eric Becker | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-golden-spikes-award-eric-becker-kalshi-kxncaabbgs-26-ebec |
| Trent Caraway | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-golden-spikes-award-trent-caraway-kalshi-kxncaabbgs-26-tcar |
| Maddox Molony | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-golden-spikes-award-maddox-molony-kalshi-kxncaabbgs-26-mmol |
| Daniel Cuvet | 3¢ | — | $503 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-golden-spikes-award-daniel-cuvet-kalshi-kxncaabbgs-26-dcuv |
| Drew Burress | 3¢ | — | $9 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-golden-spikes-award-drew-burress-kalshi-kxncaabbgs-26-dbur |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Roch Cholowsky | Derek Curiel | Kenny Ishikawa |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 50 | — | — |
| 2026-04-11 | 52 | 3 | 3 |
| 2026-04-25 | 39 | — | — |
| 2026-05-01 | 33 | — | — |
| 2026-05-08 | 23 | — | — |

_15 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Roch Cholowsky −10pp 33→23¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

The Golden Spikes Award recognizes the most outstanding amateur baseball player each year, with current pricing suggesting the leading candidate faces meaningful but not prohibitive competition. The 28% probability for the frontrunner reflects a fragmented field where multiple players remain viable contenders, as evidenced by five different candidates trading between 3-5 cents. The market will likely sharpen as the college baseball season progresses through June and into postseason play, where standout tournament performances and statistical achievements become clearer. The award announcement typically occurs in June following the conclusion of the NCAA tournament, which serves as the primary catalyst for resolving uncertainty. Market pricing currently suggests the favorite holds a material but limited edge over remaining candidates.

### Key factors

- The leading candidate's 28% probability indicates substantial competition remains; the top 5 traded candidates collectively represent only around 22 cents, leaving significant uncertainty
- No 24-hour trading volume exists across any of the listed contracts, suggesting low current market activity and potential for significant repricing as the season culminates
- The award decision depends heavily on performance during May-June college baseball season and NCAA tournament play, creating a defined time window for information arrival
- Multiple candidates are priced closely together (3-5 cents), indicating the market has not converged on a clear consensus beyond the top candidate
- The NCAA Division I baseball tournament and postseason performances through June will likely be the primary driver of probability shifts before the June award announcement

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ncaabbgs
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ncaabbgs

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