# Will North Carolina State be the Auburn Regional champions

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 37% across 19 contracts — refreshed 23 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ncaabbreg
Updated: 2026-05-28T20:20:09.681Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-16

## Headline

- Probability: 37% (liquidity-weighted across 19 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (19 contracts)
- 24h volume: $38K

## Bound contracts (19)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arkansas | 44¢ | +1pp | $6K | kalshi | /markets/will-arkansas-be-the-lawrence-regional-champions-a-kalshi-kxncaabbreg-26law-ark |
| Ole Miss | 37¢ | +8pp | $5K | kalshi | /markets/will-ole-miss-be-the-lincoln-regional-champions-ol-kalshi-kxncaabbreg-26linc-ole |
| USC Upstate | 9¢ | +2pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-usc-upstate-be-the-tuscaloosa-regional-champi-kalshi-kxncaabbreg-26tusc-cus |
| Florida | 68¢ | +5pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-florida-be-the-gainesville-regional-champions-kalshi-kxncaabbreg-26gain-flg |
| Texas A&M | 60¢ | ±0 | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-texas-am-be-the-college-station-regional-cham-kalshi-kxncaabbreg-26coll-tam |
| Tennessee | 21¢ | +8pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-tennessee-be-the-chapel-hill-regional-champio-kalshi-kxncaabbreg-26chap-ten |
| Nebraska | 44¢ | ±0 | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-nebraska-be-the-lincoln-regional-champions-ne-kalshi-kxncaabbreg-26linc-nec |
| Southern Miss | 51¢ | +9pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-southern-miss-be-the-hattiesburg-regional-cha-kalshi-kxncaabbreg-26hatt-sge |
| Miami (FL) | 20¢ | +10pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-miami-fl-be-the-gainesville-regional-champion-kalshi-kxncaabbreg-26gain-mia |
| Louisiana | 9¢ | ±0 | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-louisiana-be-the-starkville-regional-champion-kalshi-kxncaabbreg-26star-lal |
| Yale | 5¢ | +1pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-yale-be-the-eugene-regional-champions-yale-kalshi-kxncaabbreg-26eug-yal |
| Arizona State | 20¢ | +4pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-arizona-state-be-the-lincoln-regional-champio-kalshi-kxncaabbreg-26linc-ars |
| Wake Forest | 32¢ | +1pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-wake-forest-be-the-morgantown-regional-champi-kalshi-kxncaabbreg-26morg-wfd |
| Georgia | 78¢ | +4pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-georgia-be-the-athens-regional-champions-geor-kalshi-kxncaabbreg-26ath-geo |
| Cincinnati | 11¢ | +5pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-cincinnati-be-the-starkville-regional-champio-kalshi-kxncaabbreg-26star-cib |
| USC | 31¢ | — | $882 | kalshi | /markets/will-usc-be-the-college-station-regional-champions-kalshi-kxncaabbreg-26coll-usc |
| Oklahoma State | 36¢ | +4pp | $766 | kalshi | /markets/will-oklahoma-state-be-the-tuscaloosa-regional-cha-kalshi-kxncaabbreg-26tusc-osc |
| Oregon State | 36¢ | −2pp | $656 | kalshi | /markets/will-oregon-state-be-the-eugene-regional-champions-kalshi-kxncaabbreg-26eug-osb |
| Texas | 83¢ | +18pp | $424 | kalshi | /markets/will-texas-be-the-austin-regional-champions-texas-kalshi-kxncaabbreg-26aust-tel |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-26 | 28 |
| 2026-05-27 | 35 |
| 2026-05-28 | 40 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-27 · Texas +18pp 65→83¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-27 · Texas A&M +13pp 46→59¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-27 · Miami (FL) +10pp 11→21¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-27 · Florida +9pp 55→64¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-27 · Southern Miss +9pp 36→45¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects the chance that NC State wins the Auburn Regional of the NCAA Division I baseball tournament. At 32%, the market suggests NC State is a moderate contender but faces significant competition from other regional teams. The probability is influenced by the team's regular season performance, NCAA tournament seeding, and strength of opponent matchups within the Auburn Regional bracket. The resolution of this market depends on the outcome of the regional tournament games, which typically occur in early June during the NCAA tournament. The market will move based on final tournament seeding announcements, any roster changes due to injuries, and early-round game results that indicate actual team performance in tournament play.

### Key factors

- NC State's NCAA tournament seeding and opponent draw in the Auburn Regional, which determines path to championship
- Team injury status and player availability heading into the tournament, affecting roster depth and competitive capability
- Historical performance of NC State against teams projected to be in the Auburn Regional, if lineup is predetermined
- Other regional contenders' relative strength and demonstrated performance, impacting comparative odds within the bracket
- Head-to-head strength indicators like RPI rankings, recent win-loss records, and tournament experience of key roster players

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ncaabbreg
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ncaabbreg

## License

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