# Will Ohio St. win the College Football Playoff National Championship

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 8% across 8 contracts — refreshed 5 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ncaaf
Updated: 2026-05-03T17:20:51.931Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-02-23

## Headline

- Probability: 8% (liquidity-weighted across 8 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (8 contracts)
- 24h volume: $17K

## Bound contracts (8)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami (FL) | 6¢ | — | $8K | kalshi | /markets/will-miami-fl-win-the-college-football-playoff-nat-kalshi-kxncaaf-27-mia |
| Notre Dame | 10¢ | — | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-notre-dame-win-the-college-football-playoff-n-kalshi-kxncaaf-27-nd |
| Texas | 11¢ | −1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-texas-win-the-college-football-playoff-nation-kalshi-kxncaaf-27-tex |
| Oregon | 8¢ | — | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-oregon-win-the-college-football-playoff-natio-kalshi-kxncaaf-27-ore |
| Ohio St. | 10¢ | — | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-ohio-st-win-the-college-football-playoff-nati-kalshi-kxncaaf-27-osu |
| Georgia | 7¢ | +1pp | $712 | kalshi | /markets/will-georgia-win-the-college-football-playoff-nati-kalshi-kxncaaf-27-uga |
| LSU | 5¢ | — | $610 | kalshi | /markets/will-lsu-win-the-college-football-playoff-national-kalshi-kxncaaf-27-lsu |
| Indiana | 9¢ | — | $248 | kalshi | /markets/will-indiana-win-the-college-football-playoff-nati-kalshi-kxncaaf-27-ind |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 7 |
| 2026-04-19 | 9 |
| 2026-04-26 | 8 |
| 2026-05-03 | 8 |

_13 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability reflects current market expectations that Ohio State has an 8% chance of winning the College Football Playoff National Championship. At this relatively low level, the market is pricing in significant competition from other contenders, with Texas currently trading at 11% as the favorite among similar contracts. Ohio State's probability would likely move based on their performance during the remainder of the regular season and bowl games, team health developments, and coaching decisions. The key catalyst for resolving this uncertainty will be the College Football Playoff selection process in early December 2026, which will determine whether Ohio State secures a playoff berth and, if selected, their path through the tournament. Between now and then, regular season wins and losses, strength of schedule completion, and injury updates to key players will provide concrete data points that could shift market expectations either upward or downward.

### Key factors

- Ohio State's regular season record and remaining schedule strength compared to other playoff contenders
- Market pricing of Texas at 11% versus Ohio State at 8% suggests differentiation based on current roster composition or schedule difficulty
- The College Football Playoff selection announcement in early December 2026 will determine if Ohio State qualifies, which is a binary event that will significantly impact the contract value
- Head-to-head performance against ranked opponents and conference rivals during the regular season through November 2026
- Injury status and availability of key offensive and defensive players during the season, particularly any changes to starting lineups

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ncaaf
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ncaaf

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.