# Will Tulane win the College Football American Athletic Conference Championship

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 11% across 9 contracts — refreshed 32 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ncaafaac
Updated: 2026-07-27T07:20:51.314Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-03

## Headline

- Probability: 11% (liquidity-weighted across 9 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $23

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida Atlantic | 4¢ | — | $23 | kalshi | /markets/will-florida-atlantic-win-the-college-football-ame-kalshi-kxncaafaac-26-fau |
| Army | 8¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-army-win-the-college-football-american-athlet-kalshi-kxncaafaac-26-army |
| East Carolina | 10¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-east-carolina-win-the-college-football-americ-kalshi-kxncaafaac-26-ecu |
| Memphis | 11¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-memphis-win-the-college-football-american-ath-kalshi-kxncaafaac-26-mem |
| Navy | 17¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-navy-win-the-college-football-american-athlet-kalshi-kxncaafaac-26-navy |
| Tulane | 6¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tulane-win-the-college-football-american-athl-kalshi-kxncaafaac-26-tuln |
| UAB | 28¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-uab-win-the-college-football-american-athleti-kalshi-kxncaafaac-26-uab |
| North Texas | 4¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-north-texas-win-the-college-football-american-kalshi-kxncaafaac-26-unt |
| UTSA | 14¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-utsa-win-the-college-football-american-athlet-kalshi-kxncaafaac-26-utsa |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-27 | 5 |
| 2026-07-13 | 13 |
| 2026-07-20 | 10 |
| 2026-07-27 | 9 |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-20 · East Carolina −4pp 13→9¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects Tulane's chances of winning the American Athletic Conference Championship in college football. At 10%, it indicates the market views Tulane as a significant underdog among conference competitors. The probability is driven primarily by Tulane's historical performance relative to other AAC programs and their roster strength heading into the season. Key factors that would move this probability include Tulane's performance during the regular season, particularly in conference matchups, and their ability to avoid injuries among key players. The 2026 college football season's opening games and early conference contests will provide the first concrete data on team performance, which typically drives substantial probability adjustments. This market reflects uncertainty about how Tulane's team will perform against stronger programs both within and outside the conference.

### Key factors

- Tulane's regular-season win-loss record, particularly in AAC conference games, which directly determines their eligibility and seeding for the championship game
- The strength of competing AAC programs and their early-season performance, which will establish the relative competitiveness of the conference
- Key player availability and injury status for Tulane throughout the regular season, as losses to critical offensive or defensive contributors would materially impact championship odds
- Head-to-head results in Tulane's matchups against other top AAC contenders, which serve as direct evidence of competitive strength
- Market re-pricing based on early season results, as the 10% probability will adjust significantly based on actual performance data from September-November 2026 games

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

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- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ncaafaac
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ncaafaac

## License

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