# Will Miami (FL) win the College Football ACC Championship

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 11% across 8 contracts — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ncaafacc
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:39.328Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-03

## Headline

- Probability: 11% (liquidity-weighted across 8 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (8 contracts)
- 24h volume: $228

## Bound contracts (8)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| California | 3¢ | −4pp | $228 | kalshi | /markets/will-california-win-the-college-football-acc-champ-kalshi-kxncaafacc-26-cal |
| Clemson | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-clemson-win-the-college-football-acc-champion-kalshi-kxncaafacc-26-clem |
| Miami (FL) | 55¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-miami-fl-win-the-college-football-acc-champio-kalshi-kxncaafacc-26-mia |
| Louisville | 7¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-louisville-win-the-college-football-acc-champ-kalshi-kxncaafacc-26-lou |
| SMU | 7¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-smu-win-the-college-football-acc-championship-kalshi-kxncaafacc-26-smu |
| Virginia Tech | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-virginia-tech-win-the-college-football-acc-ch-kalshi-kxncaafacc-26-vt |
| Pittsburgh | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-pittsburgh-win-the-college-football-acc-champ-kalshi-kxncaafacc-26-pitt |
| Virginia | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-virginia-win-the-college-football-acc-champio-kalshi-kxncaafacc-26-uva |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 8 |
| 2026-04-26 | 5 |
| 2026-04-29 | 7 |
| 2026-05-06 | 3 |

_16 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This 13% probability reflects market expectations that Miami will win the ACC Championship in the 2026 college football season. The relatively modest odds reflect Miami's competitive standing within a strong ACC conference alongside established programs. Key drivers of this probability include the team's roster composition heading into the season, coaching stability and performance track record, and how Miami performs in key conference games against rivals. The actual probability will shift significantly once the season begins and results accumulate through conference play, particularly after Miami's matchups against traditional ACC powerhouses. The ultimate resolution occurs when the ACC Championship game is played, typically in early December, which will determine whether Miami reaches that title game and ultimately wins it.

### Key factors

- Miami's preseason roster strength and depth, especially at quarterback and defensive positions, relative to other ACC contenders
- Historical performance trends: Miami's win-loss record and bowl appearances over the past 2-3 seasons indicate the baseline competitiveness of the program
- Head coaching tenure and stability under current staff, which affects recruiting and in-season performance consistency
- Schedule difficulty in ACC conference play, including number and quality of ranked opponents Miami must face during the regular season
- Injury outcomes to key players during the season, which typically have material impact on championship probability during October-November

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ncaafacc
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ncaafacc

## License

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