# Will Virginia qualify for the College Football Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 18% across 11 contracts — refreshed 47 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ncaafaccqual
Updated: 2026-08-27T07:21:47.534Z
Category: sports
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-10

## Headline

- Probability: 18% (liquidity-weighted across 11 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (11 contracts)
- 24h volume: $83

## Bound contracts (11)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMU | 31¢ | −1pp | $62 | kalshi | /markets/will-smu-qualify-for-the-college-football-atlantic-kalshi-kxncaafaccqual-26-smu |
| Clemson | 18¢ | +6pp | $22 | kalshi | /markets/will-clemson-qualify-for-the-college-football-atla-kalshi-kxncaafaccqual-26-clem |
| California | 9¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-california-qualify-for-the-college-football-a-kalshi-kxncaafaccqual-26-cal |
| Florida St. | 8¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-florida-st-qualify-for-the-college-football-a-kalshi-kxncaafaccqual-26-fsu |
| Georgia Tech | 8¢ | +6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-georgia-tech-qualify-for-the-college-football-kalshi-kxncaafaccqual-26-gt |
| Louisville | 25¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-louisville-qualify-for-the-college-football-a-kalshi-kxncaafaccqual-26-lou |
| Miami (FL) | 64¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-miami-fl-qualify-for-the-college-football-atl-kalshi-kxncaafaccqual-26-mia |
| North Carolina St. | 12¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-north-carolina-st-qualify-for-the-college-foo-kalshi-kxncaafaccqual-26-ncst |
| Pittsburgh | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-pittsburgh-qualify-for-the-college-football-a-kalshi-kxncaafaccqual-26-pitt |
| Virginia | 5¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-virginia-qualify-for-the-college-football-atl-kalshi-kxncaafaccqual-26-uva |
| Virginia Tech | 10¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-virginia-tech-qualify-for-the-college-footbal-kalshi-kxncaafaccqual-26-vt |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 | 32 |
| 2026-08-13 | 33 |
| 2026-08-20 | 29 |
| 2026-08-27 | 17 |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-25 · Georgia Tech −9pp 11→2¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-22 · Georgia Tech +7pp 4→11¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-27 · Clemson +6pp 12→18¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-27 · Georgia Tech +6pp 2→8¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-22 · Miami (FL) +6pp 59→65¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability represents the likelihood that the University of Virginia's football team will qualify for the ACC Championship Game, currently priced at 10%. Virginia would need to finish among the top two teams in the ACC's playoff structure to reach the championship game. The low probability reflects Virginia's recent competitive standing within the conference; the team would need to significantly outperform historical expectations or benefit from weakness among traditional ACC contenders to earn a championship berth. The probability could shift materially based on Virginia's performance during the 2026 regular season, strength of schedule results, and how other ACC teams develop. The season conclusion and final ACC standings, determined after the regular season concludes in late 2026, will ultimately resolve this outcome.

### Key factors

- Virginia's conference win-loss record relative to other ACC teams through the end of the regular season
- Head-to-head results against other ACC contenders and teams competing for championship spots
- Strength of Virginia's out-of-conference schedule results and how those affect tiebreaker scenarios
- Injury status and roster changes of key Virginia players throughout the 2026 season
- Whether the ACC maintains or modifies its current playoff structure and selection criteria by season's end

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ncaafaccqual
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ncaafaccqual

## License

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