# Will Ohio St. be #1 ranked team on College Football AP Poll week 1 rankings

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 15% across 6 contracts — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ncaafaprank
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:38.505Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-09-15

## Headline

- Probability: 15% (liquidity-weighted across 6 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $558

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio St. | 45¢ | +1pp | $528 | kalshi | /markets/will-ohio-st-be-1-ranked-team-on-college-football-kalshi-kxncaafaprank-26w1r1-osu |
| Miami (FL) | 6¢ | +2pp | $16 | kalshi | /markets/will-miami-fl-be-1-ranked-team-on-college-football-kalshi-kxncaafaprank-26w1r1-mia |
| Indiana | 7¢ | +5pp | $13 | kalshi | /markets/will-indiana-be-1-ranked-team-on-college-football-kalshi-kxncaafaprank-26w1r1-ind |
| Texas | 27¢ | −2pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-texas-be-1-ranked-team-on-college-football-ap-kalshi-kxncaafaprank-26w1r1-tex |
| Oregon | 3¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-oregon-be-1-ranked-team-on-college-football-a-kalshi-kxncaafaprank-26w1r1-ore |
| Notre Dame | 4¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-notre-dame-be-1-ranked-team-on-college-footba-kalshi-kxncaafaprank-26w1r1-nd |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 20 |
| 2026-04-25 | 25 |
| 2026-05-02 | 44 |
| 2026-05-09 | 45 |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-08 · Indiana +5pp 2→7¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects a 21% chance that Ohio State will enter the 2026 college football season as the nation's top-ranked team in the AP Poll's first weekly release. The current assessment is influenced by Ohio State's recent performance trajectory and preseason expectations versus competing programs that may have stronger off-season positioning. The single most important resolution point will be the actual AP Poll release in late August 2026, which reflects voter assessments of team roster strength, returning talent, coaching staff changes, and summer transfer portal activity. Key factors analysts monitor include Ohio State's quarterback situation heading into the season, the quality and health of the team's offensive and defensive line depth, offseason transfers or departures, how other traditional powerhouses position themselves, and whether Ohio State experiences any concerning injuries during preseason practice.

### Key factors

- Ohio State's quarterback situation and whether they have a proven starter entering the 2026 season
- The team's defensive line depth and overall defensive personnel after the offseason
- Transfer portal activity affecting roster composition and talent level relative to other top programs
- Offseason coaching staff changes or developments that might affect preseason evaluations
- Competitive positioning of other traditional powerhouses like Alabama, Georgia, and Texas entering 2026

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ncaafaprank
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ncaafaprank

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.