# Caleb Hawkins wins the award

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 15% across 11 contracts — refreshed 13 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ncaafaward
Updated: 2026-09-25T06:20:49.245Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-07

## Headline

- Probability: 15% (liquidity-weighted across 11 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (11 contracts)
- 24h volume: $175

## Bound contracts (11)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Robertson | 35¢ | — | $107 | kalshi | /markets/connor-robertson-wins-the-award-connor-robertson-kalshi-kxncaafaward-26rimi-crob |
| Malachi Toney | 7¢ | −11pp | $64 | kalshi | /markets/malachi-toney-wins-the-award-malachi-toney-kalshi-kxncaafaward-26bile-mton |
| Trey'Dez Green | 22¢ | +4pp | $4 | kalshi | /markets/treydez-green-wins-the-award-treydez-green-kalshi-kxncaafaward-26john-tgre |
| Jadan Baugh | 24¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/jadan-baugh-wins-the-award-jadan-baugh-kalshi-kxncaafaward-26doak-jbau |
| Bryce Underwood | 25¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/bryce-underwood-wins-ap-college-football-player-of-kalshi-kxncaafaward-26appoy-bund |
| Darian Mensah | 8¢ | −7pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/darian-mensah-wins-ap-college-football-player-of-t-kalshi-kxncaafaward-26appoy-dmen |
| Jadan Baugh | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/jadan-baugh-wins-ap-college-football-player-of-the-kalshi-kxncaafaward-26appoy-jbau |
| Kamario Taylor | 6¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/kamario-taylor-wins-ap-college-football-player-of-kalshi-kxncaafaward-26appoy-ktay |
| Anthony Smith | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/anthony-smith-wins-the-award-anthony-smith-kalshi-kxncaafaward-26bedn-asmi |
| Colin Simmons | 25¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/colin-simmons-wins-the-award-colin-simmons-kalshi-kxncaafaward-26bedn-csim |
| Anthony Evans III | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/anthony-evans-iii-wins-the-award-anthony-evans-iii-kalshi-kxncaafaward-26bile-aeva |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | 24 |
| 2026-09-18 | 19 |
| 2026-09-25 | 15 |

_24 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-09-25 · Malachi Toney −11pp 16→5¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-18 · Jadan Baugh +10pp 11→21¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-23 · Trey'Dez Green −9pp 22→13¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-23 · Malachi Toney −8pp 29→21¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-23 · Jadan Baugh −8pp 24→16¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This represents a 10% chance that Caleb Hawkins wins a specific award, based on current prediction market pricing. Hawkins is trading at 3 cents on Kalshi, well below the leading contender Jeremiah Smith at 33 cents, suggesting market participants view Smith as a substantially stronger candidate. The probability reflects assessments of recent performance metrics, eligibility criteria, and voting patterns for this award. Factors supporting a higher probability would include standout recent statistics or accomplishments by Hawkins; factors lowering it would be comparable achievements by competing candidates. Market liquidity is minimal across most contracts (zero 24-hour volume on Hawkins), indicating limited trading activity and potentially wider uncertainty among participants. Resolution will occur when the award is officially announced, which should clarify whether Hawkins's actual qualifications and performance met the threshold for winning.

### Key factors

- Jeremiah Smith commands 33 cents compared to Hawkins at 3 cents, indicating market consensus favors Smith by roughly 11-to-1 odds
- Hawkins's contract shows zero 24-hour trading volume, suggesting low confidence or interest in his candidacy among active traders
- The minimal pricing of Hawkins relative to other candidates reflects either poor recent performance relative to peers or lower perceived award eligibility
- No major liquidity or price movement on Hawkins's contract suggests no recent catalysts or information supporting his chances
- Award resolution timeline and specific eligibility/voting criteria would directly determine outcome once announced

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ncaafaward
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ncaafaward

## License

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