# Will Penn State win the College Football Big 10 Championship

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 12% across 9 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ncaafb10
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:42.783Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-03

## Headline

- Probability: 12% (liquidity-weighted across 9 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $26

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oregon | 20¢ | ±0 | $21 | kalshi | /markets/will-oregon-win-the-college-football-big-10-champi-kalshi-kxncaafb10-26-ore |
| USC | 8¢ | +2pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-usc-win-the-college-football-big-10-champions-kalshi-kxncaafb10-26-usc |
| Indiana | 23¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-indiana-win-the-college-football-big-10-champ-kalshi-kxncaafb10-26-ind |
| Ohio St. | 30¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ohio-state-win-the-college-football-big-10-ch-kalshi-kxncaafb10-26-osu |
| Penn St. | 5¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-penn-state-win-the-college-football-big-10-ch-kalshi-kxncaafb10-26-psu |
| Michigan | 5¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-michigan-win-the-college-football-big-10-cham-kalshi-kxncaafb10-26-mich |
| Minnesota | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-minnesota-win-the-college-football-big-10-cha-kalshi-kxncaafb10-26-minn |
| Michigan St. | 9¢ | +8pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-michigan-st-win-the-college-football-big-10-c-kalshi-kxncaafb10-26-msu |
| Purdue | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-purdue-win-the-college-football-big-10-champi-kalshi-kxncaafb10-26-pur |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 5 |
| 2026-04-27 | 13 |
| 2026-04-30 | 23 |
| 2026-05-07 | 7 |

_14 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

Penn State currently carries an 11% probability of winning the Big 10 Conference football championship. This reflects the market's assessment of the Nittany Lions' ability to win their conference title during the 2026 season. The probability is influenced by Penn State's roster composition, coaching staff performance, strength of schedule within the conference, and how they compare to other Big 10 contenders. Key factors pushing the probability down include competition from programs like Ohio State, Michigan, and other traditional Big 10 powers. The championship will be resolved through the regular season culminating in the Big 10 Championship Game, typically held in early December, where Penn State would need to either win their division or finish as the highest-ranked non-division winner to qualify. Upcoming non-conference games and early conference matchups will provide critical data about the team's competitiveness relative to expectations.

### Key factors

- Penn State's win-loss record in Big 10 play and strength of schedule within the conference
- Head-to-head performance against division rivals and top-tier Big 10 programs
- Quarterback performance, key injury status, and offensive/defensive line development through training camp and preseason
- Comparative roster strength and recruiting rankings relative to Ohio State, Michigan, and other conference competitors
- Performance in September and October non-conference and early conference games as predictive indicators

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

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- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ncaafb10
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ncaafb10

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