# Will Baylor win the College Football Big 12 Championship

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 15% across 6 contracts — refreshed 53 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ncaafb12
Updated: 2026-07-13T06:20:52.366Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-02

## Headline

- Probability: 15% (liquidity-weighted across 6 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2K

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas St. | 5¢ | ±0 | $936 | kalshi | /markets/will-kansas-st-win-the-college-football-big-12-cha-kalshi-kxncaafb12-26-ksu |
| Houston | 4¢ | −1pp | $410 | kalshi | /markets/will-houston-win-the-college-football-big-12-champ-kalshi-kxncaafb12-26-hou |
| Texas Tech | 45¢ | +2pp | $272 | kalshi | /markets/will-texas-tech-win-the-college-football-big-12-ch-kalshi-kxncaafb12-26-ttu |
| BYU | 11¢ | +2pp | $71 | kalshi | /markets/will-byu-win-the-college-football-big-12-champions-kalshi-kxncaafb12-26-byu |
| Oklahoma St. | 8¢ | −1pp | $43 | kalshi | /markets/will-oklahoma-st-win-the-college-football-big-12-c-kalshi-kxncaafb12-26-okst |
| Utah | 14¢ | ±0 | $35 | kalshi | /markets/will-utah-win-the-college-football-big-12-champion-kalshi-kxncaafb12-26-utah |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-13 | 33 |
| 2026-06-29 | 27 |
| 2026-07-06 | 21 |
| 2026-07-12 | 9 |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This 11% probability reflects the likelihood that Baylor wins the Big 12 Conference championship during the 2026 football season. The relatively low probability suggests Baylor faces competitive headwinds within a conference that includes stronger programs. Key drivers of this probability include Baylor's recent competitive positioning relative to other Big 12 teams, roster strength, coaching stability, and injury circumstances entering the season. The main uncertainty will resolve through the conference tournament or final standings in late November/early December 2026, when actual on-field performance determines the champion. Market participants are pricing in meaningful competition from other conference programs, reflected in the contrast between this 11% figure and probabilities for playoff championship scenarios involving top-tier programs.

### Key factors

- Baylor's recent Big 12 performance record and win-loss trajectory in conference play over the past 2-3 seasons
- Roster composition and returning talent, particularly at quarterback and defensive positions, compared to other Big 12 contenders
- Conference strength distribution—the number and caliber of other programs competing for the championship affects Baylor's path
- Coaching staff continuity and any recent changes that could impact team performance in 2026
- Head-to-head scheduling dynamics within the Big 12, including whether Baylor faces stronger conference opponents in critical late-season matchups

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ncaafb12
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ncaafb12

## License

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