# Will BYU finish in the top 3 in the Big 12 in the 2026 college football regular season

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 24% across 17 contracts — refreshed 1 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ncaafb12regtop
Updated: 2026-08-27T09:20:49.641Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-02-07

## Headline

- Probability: 24% (liquidity-weighted across 17 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (17 contracts)
- 24h volume: $383

## Bound contracts (17)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Tech | 65¢ | +3pp | $383 | kalshi | /markets/will-texas-tech-finish-in-the-top-3-in-the-big-12-kalshi-kxncaafb12regtop-27t3-ttu |
| Arizona | 8¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-arizona-finish-in-the-top-3-in-the-big-12-in-kalshi-kxncaafb12regtop-27t3-ariz |
| Arizona St. | 7¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-arizona-st-finish-in-the-top-3-in-the-big-12-kalshi-kxncaafb12regtop-27t3-asu |
| BYU | 52¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-byu-finish-in-the-top-3-in-the-big-12-in-the-kalshi-kxncaafb12regtop-27t3-byu |
| Colorado | 10¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-colorado-finish-in-the-top-3-in-the-big-12-in-kalshi-kxncaafb12regtop-27t3-colo |
| Houston | 16¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-houston-finish-in-the-top-3-in-the-big-12-in-kalshi-kxncaafb12regtop-27t3-hou |
| Kansas St. | 15¢ | +14pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-kansas-st-finish-in-the-top-3-in-the-big-12-i-kalshi-kxncaafb12regtop-27t3-ksu |
| Oklahoma St. | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-oklahoma-st-finish-in-the-top-3-in-the-big-12-kalshi-kxncaafb12regtop-27t3-okst |
| TCU | 7¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tcu-finish-in-the-top-3-in-the-big-12-in-the-kalshi-kxncaafb12regtop-27t3-tcu |
| Utah | 26¢ | −15pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-utah-finish-in-the-top-3-in-the-big-12-in-the-kalshi-kxncaafb12regtop-27t3-utah |
| Arizona | 21¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-arizona-finish-in-the-top-4-in-the-big-12-in-kalshi-kxncaafb12regtop-27t4-ariz |
| Arizona St. | 14¢ | +9pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-arizona-st-finish-in-the-top-4-in-the-big-12-kalshi-kxncaafb12regtop-27t4-asu |
| Baylor | 9¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-baylor-finish-in-the-top-4-in-the-big-12-in-t-kalshi-kxncaafb12regtop-27t4-bay |
| BYU | 63¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-byu-finish-in-the-top-4-in-the-big-12-in-the-kalshi-kxncaafb12regtop-27t4-byu |
| Colorado | 14¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-colorado-finish-in-the-top-4-in-the-big-12-in-kalshi-kxncaafb12regtop-27t4-colo |
| Houston | 50¢ | +20pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-houston-finish-in-the-top-4-in-the-big-12-in-kalshi-kxncaafb12regtop-27t4-hou |
| Kansas St. | 20¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-kansas-st-finish-in-the-top-4-in-the-big-12-i-kalshi-kxncaafb12regtop-27t4-ksu |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | 26 |
| 2026-08-20 | 22 |
| 2026-08-26 | 14 |

_21 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-25 · Houston +20pp 31→51¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-25 · Utah −15pp 40→25¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-26 · Kansas St. +14pp 2→16¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-25 · Kansas St. −12pp 14→2¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-22 · Texas Tech −10pp 72→62¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This reflects the 17% chance that BYU finishes in the top three of the Big 12 standings in the 2026 regular season. The low probability suggests market participants view BYU as unlikely to compete with the conference's strongest teams this year. The assessment likely reflects BYU's recent performance relative to established Big 12 powers, roster composition, and schedule strength. Key variables include whether BYU's offensive and defensive units perform above or below preseason expectations, coaching staff execution, and injury impacts on key positions. The regular season will conclude in late November 2026, when final standings determine the outcome. Until then, early-season performance through October and November will provide data points that could shift market expectations significantly if BYU either surprises with strong wins or disappoints against ranked opponents.

### Key factors

- BYU's strength of schedule and performance against top-25 opponents in the non-conference and conference portions through October-November 2026
- Comparative roster quality and recruiting rankings relative to other contenders like Texas Tech (priced at 50¢), Houston, Kansas State, and Utah
- Injury status of BYU's key offensive and defensive contributors during the regular season
- Head coach Kalani Sitake's track record in Big 12 competition and team execution in high-leverage games
- Market pricing disparities showing Texas Tech as the strongest contender (50¢) while BYU ranks fourth at 20¢, indicating consensus tier assessment

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

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