# Will at least 3 teams in the Big 12 win at least 10 games in the 2026 college football regular season

> 2+ teams leads at 78%, runner-up 43% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 47 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ncaafbig12wins
Updated: 2026-08-27T07:21:48.840Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-07

## Headline

- Leader: 2+ teams at 78%
- Runner-up: 3+ teams at 43%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $504

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2+ teams | 78¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-at-least-2-teams-in-the-big-12-win-at-least-1-kalshi-kxncaafbig12wins-26w10-2 |
| 3+ teams | 43¢ | −4pp | $500 | kalshi | /markets/will-at-least-3-teams-in-the-big-12-win-at-least-1-kalshi-kxncaafbig12wins-26w10-3 |
| 4+ teams | 18¢ | +5pp | $4 | kalshi | /markets/will-at-least-4-teams-in-the-big-12-win-at-least-1-kalshi-kxncaafbig12wins-26w10-4 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 2+ teams | 3+ teams | 4+ teams |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-10 | 34 | 2 | — |
| 2026-08-13 | 67 | 45 | — |
| 2026-08-20 | 45 | 32 | 6 |
| 2026-08-25 | 78 | 53 | 18 |
| 2026-08-27 | — | 43 | 18 |

_17 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-21 · 2+ teams +30pp 45→75¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-22 · 3+ teams +17pp 41→58¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-22 · 4+ teams +14pp 5→19¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-20 · 3+ teams +13pp 19→32¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-21 · 3+ teams +9pp 32→41¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract asks whether at least three Big 12 teams will win 10+ games during the 2026 regular season. The 45% probability reflects meaningful uncertainty about whether the conference can field three double-digit-win teams simultaneously. The Big 12's competitive depth, strength of schedule distribution across member schools, and injury patterns throughout the season will determine outcomes. Historical precedent shows major conferences regularly produce 2-3 ten-win teams, but clustering three within a single conference requires sustained performance across multiple programs. The resolution depends entirely on final regular-season records, which will be determined after the 2026 season concludes in November-December 2026. Key variables include the conference's overall strength relative to competitors, whether traditional powers (Texas, Oklahoma, etc.) maintain excellence, and whether mid-tier programs exceed typical performance levels.

### Key factors

- Conference strength relative to other Power conferences affects how many Big 12 teams accumulate 10-win records through SOS difficulty
- Historical Big 12 performance shows 1-2 double-digit-win teams are common, but three simultaneously is less frequent and requires sustained excellence
- Schedule composition and injury luck across multiple programs must align for three separate teams to each win 10+ conference and non-conference games
- As of August 2026, preseason expectations and roster composition are already set; remaining catalyst is actual game outcomes through November-December 2026
- Strength of individual programs' non-conference schedules affects total-win accumulation independent of conference play

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ncaafbig12wins
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ncaafbig12wins

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.