# Rolijah Hardy records the most sacks in the Big Ten

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 13% across 16 contracts — refreshed 1 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ncaafbigtenleader
Updated: 2026-08-27T09:20:51.589Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-07

## Headline

- Probability: 13% (liquidity-weighted across 16 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (16 contracts)
- 24h volume: $176

## Bound contracts (16)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Lonergan | 3¢ | — | $94 | kalshi | /markets/dylan-lonergan-records-the-most-passing-yards-in-t-kalshi-kxncaafbigtenleader-26passyds-rutgdlon |
| Julian Sayin | 31¢ | +2pp | $65 | kalshi | /markets/julian-sayin-records-the-most-passing-touchdowns-i-kalshi-kxncaafbigtenleader-26passtd-osujsay |
| Jayden Maiava | 24¢ | −2pp | $12 | kalshi | /markets/jayden-maiava-records-the-most-passing-yards-in-th-kalshi-kxncaafbigtenleader-26passyds-uscjmai |
| Tanook Hines | 30¢ | — | $5 | kalshi | /markets/tanook-hines-records-the-most-receiving-yards-in-t-kalshi-kxncaafbigtenleader-26recyds-uscthin |
| Josh Hoover | 12¢ | +1pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/josh-hoover-records-the-most-passing-touchdowns-in-kalshi-kxncaafbigtenleader-26passtd-indjhoo |
| Rocco Becht | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/rocco-becht-records-the-most-passing-touchdowns-in-kalshi-kxncaafbigtenleader-26passtd-psurbec |
| Josh Hoover | 8¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/josh-hoover-records-the-most-passing-yards-in-the-kalshi-kxncaafbigtenleader-26passyds-indjhoo |
| Anthony Smith | 30¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/anthony-smith-records-the-most-sacks-in-the-big-te-kalshi-kxncaafbigtenleader-26sack-minnasmi |
| Anthony Colandrea | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/anthony-colandrea-records-the-most-passing-touchdo-kalshi-kxncaafbigtenleader-26passtd-nebacol |
| Dante Moore | 23¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/dante-moore-records-the-most-passing-touchdowns-in-kalshi-kxncaafbigtenleader-26passtd-oredmoo |
| Jayden Maiava | 9¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/jayden-maiava-records-the-most-passing-touchdowns-kalshi-kxncaafbigtenleader-26passtd-uscjmai |
| Demond Williams Jr. | 6¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/demond-williams-jr-records-the-most-passing-touchd-kalshi-kxncaafbigtenleader-26passtd-washdwil |
| Malik Washington | 5¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/malik-washington-records-the-most-passing-yards-in-kalshi-kxncaafbigtenleader-26passyds-mdmwas |
| Anthony Colandrea | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/anthony-colandrea-records-the-most-passing-yards-i-kalshi-kxncaafbigtenleader-26passyds-nebacol |
| Dante Moore | 3¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/dante-moore-records-the-most-passing-yards-in-the-kalshi-kxncaafbigtenleader-26passyds-oredmoo |
| Julian Sayin | 14¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/julian-sayin-records-the-most-passing-yards-in-the-kalshi-kxncaafbigtenleader-26passyds-osujsay |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | 13 |
| 2026-08-27 | 3 |

_7 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-24 · Julian Sayin +8pp 14→22¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-25 · Julian Sayin −6pp 22→16¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-24 · Josh Hoover +3pp 6→9¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-22 · Jayden Maiava −3pp 14→11¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability indicates a 16% chance that Rolijah Hardy finishes the 2026 Big Ten football season with more sacks than any other player in the conference. The market is pricing in competition from multiple defensive standouts across Big Ten programs. Hardy's probability would move higher if he demonstrates exceptional performance early in the season relative to peers, or lower if other defensive ends or linebacker prospects emerge as more dominant pass rushers. The primary catalyst for resolution will be the conclusion of the regular season in November 2026, when final Big Ten sack statistics can be calculated and compared across all players.

### Key factors

- Hardy's sack total through the first 4-6 weeks of the season compared to other projected Big Ten defensive leaders
- Whether Hardy receives consistent playing time and defensive snaps relative to other top pass rushers in the conference
- The strength of Hardy's team's pass rush scheme and whether it generates favorable opportunities for individual sack accumulation
- Injury status and availability of other top Big Ten defensive prospects competing for sack leader distinction
- Conference-wide statistics tracking through mid-season that would indicate relative performance trajectories

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ncaafbigtenleader
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ncaafbigtenleader

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