# Will Oregon finish in the top 3 in the Big Ten in the 2026 college football regular season

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 28% across 15 contracts — refreshed 11 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ncaafbigtenregtop
Updated: 2026-08-27T11:21:47.360Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-02-07

## Headline

- Probability: 28% (liquidity-weighted across 15 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (15 contracts)
- 24h volume: $360

## Bound contracts (15)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan | 42¢ | +4pp | $239 | kalshi | /markets/will-michigan-finish-in-the-top-5-in-the-big-ten-i-kalshi-kxncaafbigtenregtop-27t5-mich |
| Indiana | 41¢ | +5pp | $43 | kalshi | /markets/will-indiana-finish-in-the-top-3-in-the-big-ten-in-kalshi-kxncaafbigtenregtop-27t3-ind |
| Ohio State | 41¢ | +13pp | $40 | kalshi | /markets/will-ohio-state-finish-in-the-top-3-in-the-big-ten-kalshi-kxncaafbigtenregtop-27t3-osu |
| Oregon | 44¢ | +2pp | $38 | kalshi | /markets/will-oregon-finish-in-the-top-3-in-the-big-ten-in-kalshi-kxncaafbigtenregtop-27t3-ore |
| UCLA | 9¢ | −6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ucla-finish-in-the-top-4-in-the-big-ten-in-th-kalshi-kxncaafbigtenregtop-27t4-ucla |
| USC | 60¢ | +12pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-usc-finish-in-the-top-5-in-the-big-ten-in-the-kalshi-kxncaafbigtenregtop-27t5-usc |
| Michigan | 33¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-michigan-finish-in-the-top-4-in-the-big-ten-i-kalshi-kxncaafbigtenregtop-27t4-mich |
| Michigan | 15¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-michigan-finish-in-the-top-3-in-the-big-ten-i-kalshi-kxncaafbigtenregtop-27t3-mich |
| Penn State | 23¢ | −15pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-penn-state-finish-in-the-top-3-in-the-big-ten-kalshi-kxncaafbigtenregtop-27t3-psu |
| USC | 13¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-usc-finish-in-the-top-3-in-the-big-ten-in-the-kalshi-kxncaafbigtenregtop-27t3-usc |
| Washington | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-washington-finish-in-the-top-3-in-the-big-ten-kalshi-kxncaafbigtenregtop-27t3-wash |
| Illinois | 4¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-illinois-finish-in-the-top-4-in-the-big-ten-i-kalshi-kxncaafbigtenregtop-27t4-ill |
| Indiana | 72¢ | +5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-indiana-finish-in-the-top-4-in-the-big-ten-in-kalshi-kxncaafbigtenregtop-27t4-ind |
| Iowa | 12¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-iowa-finish-in-the-top-4-in-the-big-ten-in-th-kalshi-kxncaafbigtenregtop-27t4-iowa |
| Michigan St. | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-michigan-st-finish-in-the-top-4-in-the-big-te-kalshi-kxncaafbigtenregtop-27t4-msu |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | 15 |
| 2026-08-12 | 72 |
| 2026-08-20 | 38 |
| 2026-08-27 | 41 |

_25 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-25 · Indiana −34pp 70→36¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-25 · Oregon −32pp 74→42¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-25 · Ohio State −30pp 44→14¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-20 · Ohio State −19pp 70→51¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-25 · Penn State −15pp 40→25¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects the market's assessment that Oregon has an 18% chance of finishing among the Big Ten's top three teams in the 2026 regular season. Oregon joined the Big Ten in 2024 and faces an established group of powerhouse programs. The relatively low probability suggests market confidence that Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan, and other traditional Big Ten contenders will likely outperform the Ducks. The 2026 season begins in late August 2026, providing roughly one month until games start to adjust expectations based on preseason reporting, injury updates, and coaching changes. Key drivers include Oregon's offensive and defensive roster composition, whether their quarterback and offensive line remain healthy, and the relative strength of competing programs. Final resolution will depend on conference standings after all regular-season games conclude in November 2026.

### Key factors

- Oregon's offensive line and starting quarterback health and development entering the 2026 season
- Strength of Oregon's defensive front and secondary relative to Ohio State, Penn State, and other Big Ten contenders
- Conference schedule difficulty and Oregon's relative record against top-tier Big Ten opponents in head-to-head matchups
- Whether major coaching changes occur at Oregon or competing programs between now and the start of the season
- Preseason rankings and recruiting class evaluations released in summer 2026 that may reveal program trajectory shifts

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

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- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ncaafbigtenregtop
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ncaafbigtenregtop

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