# Will at least 2 teams in the Big Ten win at least 10 games in the 2026 college football regular season

> 3+ teams leads at 77%, runner-up 11% across 4 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 14 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ncaafbigtenwins
Updated: 2026-09-21T23:21:02.718Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-07

## Headline

- Leader: 3+ teams at 77%
- Runner-up: 5+ teams at 11%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3+ teams | 77¢ | +30pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-at-least-3-teams-in-the-big-ten-win-at-least-kalshi-kxncaafbigtenwins-26w10-3 |
| 5+ teams | 11¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-at-least-5-teams-in-the-big-ten-win-at-least-kalshi-kxncaafbigtenwins-26w10-5 |
| 6+ teams | 10¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-at-least-6-teams-in-the-big-ten-win-at-least-kalshi-kxncaafbigtenwins-26w10-6 |
| 7+ teams | 10¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-at-least-7-teams-in-the-big-ten-win-at-least-kalshi-kxncaafbigtenwins-26w10-7 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 3+ teams | 5+ teams | 7+ teams |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | 78 | 10 | — |
| 2026-09-04 | 73 | 10 | 10 |
| 2026-09-07 | 71 | 16 | — |
| 2026-09-12 | — | 11 | — |
| 2026-09-17 | 45 | 7 | — |
| 2026-09-19 | 77 | — | — |

_24 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-09-19 · 3+ teams +30pp 47→77¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-17 · 5+ teams −4pp 11→7¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract asks whether at least 2 Big Ten teams will reach 10 wins during the 2026 regular season. At 86%, the market reflects high confidence that multiple teams will cross this threshold, though not certainty. The Big Ten's strength and depth—particularly teams returning experienced rosters from 2025—support this outlook. The probability would decline if preseason injuries or recruiting losses weaken traditional powerhouses, or if the conference's non-conference schedule proves more competitive than expected. Resolution depends entirely on final 2026 regular-season records, with the outcome determined after the conference's final games in November 2026. Historical Big Ten performance shows multiple 10-win teams occur frequently, but conference parity and scheduling variance introduce meaningful uncertainty at the margin.

### Key factors

- 2025-2026 Big Ten team rosters and returning starter counts, particularly for Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan, and other contenders
- Preseason injury reports and recruiting class rankings for major programs entering summer 2026
- Non-conference strength of schedule and upset potential against Big Ten programs before conference play begins
- Conference win distribution and whether traditional top teams maintain separation or parity increases
- Final regular-season records of Big Ten teams as of November 2026, the sole determinant of contract resolution

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ncaafbigtenwins
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ncaafbigtenwins

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.