# Bill Belichick out before Jan 1, 2027

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 31% across 15 contracts — refreshed 1 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ncaafcoachleave
Updated: 2026-09-21T11:20:59.895Z
Category: legislation
Status: active
Closes: 2028-01-01

## Headline

- Probability: 31% (liquidity-weighted across 15 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (15 contracts)
- 24h volume: $730

## Bound contracts (15)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 25¢ | −6pp | $243 | kalshi | /markets/dabo-swinney-out-before-jan-1-2028-before-jan-1-20-kalshi-kxncaafcoachleave-26dswi-010128 |
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | 51¢ | −7pp | $155 | kalshi | /markets/bill-belichick-out-before-dec-1-2026-before-dec-1-kalshi-kxncaafcoachleave-26bbel-120126 |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 68¢ | −5pp | $100 | kalshi | /markets/bill-belichick-out-before-jan-1-2027-before-jan-1-kalshi-kxncaafcoachleave-26bbel-010127 |
| Before Feb 1, 2027 | 62¢ | −13pp | $100 | kalshi | /markets/bill-belichick-out-before-feb-1-2027-before-feb-1-kalshi-kxncaafcoachleave-26bbel-020127 |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 3¢ | −14pp | $47 | kalshi | /markets/dabo-swinney-out-before-jan-1-2027-before-jan-1-20-kalshi-kxncaafcoachleave-26dswi-010127 |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 36¢ | −2pp | $34 | kalshi | /markets/mike-norvell-out-before-jan-1-2027-before-jan-1-20-kalshi-kxncaafcoachleave-26mnor-010127 |
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | 5¢ | +1pp | $18 | kalshi | /markets/kyle-whittingham-out-before-dec-1-2026-before-dec-kalshi-kxncaafcoachleave-26kwhi-120126 |
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | 3¢ | −1pp | $16 | kalshi | /markets/dabo-swinney-out-before-dec-1-2026-before-dec-1-20-kalshi-kxncaafcoachleave-26dswi-120126 |
| Before Feb 1, 2027 | 12¢ | +12pp | $7 | kalshi | /markets/dabo-swinney-out-before-feb-1-2027-before-feb-1-20-kalshi-kxncaafcoachleave-26dswi-020127 |
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | 12¢ | — | $6 | kalshi | /markets/greg-schiano-out-before-dec-1-2026-before-dec-1-20-kalshi-kxncaafcoachleave-26gsch-120126 |
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | 19¢ | +11pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/mike-norvell-out-before-dec-1-2026-before-dec-1-20-kalshi-kxncaafcoachleave-26mnor-120126 |
| Before Feb 1, 2027 | 54¢ | +23pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/mike-norvell-out-before-feb-1-2027-before-feb-1-20-kalshi-kxncaafcoachleave-26mnor-020127 |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 65¢ | −5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/mike-norvell-out-before-jan-1-2028-before-jan-1-20-kalshi-kxncaafcoachleave-26mnor-010128 |
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | 6¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/greg-schiano-out-before-oct-1-2026-before-oct-1-20-kalshi-kxncaafcoachleave-26gsch-100126 |
| Before Feb 1, 2027 | 45¢ | −36pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/greg-schiano-out-before-feb-1-2027-before-feb-1-20-kalshi-kxncaafcoachleave-26gsch-020127 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | 29 |
| 2026-09-07 | 39 |
| 2026-09-12 | 48 |
| 2026-09-19 | 33 |

_17 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-09-18 · Before Feb 1, 2027 −36pp 81→45¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-17 · Before Feb 1, 2027 +23pp 31→54¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-17 · Before Feb 1, 2027 +15pp 11→26¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-17 · Before Jan 1, 2027 +14pp 3→17¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-19 · Before Jan 1, 2027 −14pp 17→3¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

Markets are pricing a 65% probability that Bill Belichick departs his current coaching role by January 1, 2028, with higher confidence (31% probability) that an exit occurs before January 1, 2027. The probability reflects ongoing speculation about Belichick's tenure, influenced by team performance, contract terms, and reported discussions about his future. The 2026 NFL season serves as the primary catalyst—Win-loss records, playoff positioning, and any official statements from team ownership or Belichick himself will likely resolve much of this uncertainty. Near-term performance in September through December 2026 will be the key driver; sustained poor results or public conflict typically accelerates coaching departures, while playoff contention or strong team trajectory would push probabilities lower.

### Key factors

- Current 2026 NFL season results and playoff trajectory: poor performance or team dysfunction would increase exit probability; playoff contention would decrease it
- Expiration or renegotiation of Belichick's contract terms and whether ownership has expressed confidence or concern publicly
- Statements from team ownership or Belichick regarding his long-term commitment; any reported negotiations with other teams would meaningfully raise exit probability
- Historical coaching tenure patterns: NFL coaches at Belichick's age and experience level typically face higher turnover pressure if team performance declines
- Absence of recent contract extensions or public renewal discussions as of late August 2026, which would typically signal ownership commitment

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ncaafcoachleave
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ncaafcoachleave

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.