# Bret Bielema out before Feb 1, 2027

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 21% across 19 contracts — refreshed 14 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ncaafcoachout
Updated: 2026-09-21T23:21:01.915Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-02-01

## Headline

- Probability: 21% (liquidity-weighted across 19 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (19 contracts)
- 24h volume: $830

## Bound contracts (19)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Norvell | 90¢ | +1pp | $391 | kalshi | /markets/mike-norvell-out-before-feb-1-2027-mike-norvell-kalshi-kxncaafcoachout-27feb01-mnor |
| Dabo Swinney | 57¢ | ±0 | $197 | kalshi | /markets/dabo-swinney-out-before-feb-1-2027-dabo-swinney-kalshi-kxncaafcoachout-27feb01-dswi |
| Kalen DeBoer | 10¢ | −10pp | $100 | kalshi | /markets/kalen-deboer-out-before-feb-1-2027-kalen-deboer-kalshi-kxncaafcoachout-27feb01-kdeb |
| Luke Fickell | 68¢ | +18pp | $58 | kalshi | /markets/luke-fickell-out-before-feb-1-2027-luke-fickell-kalshi-kxncaafcoachout-27feb01-lfic |
| Matt Rhule | 12¢ | −1pp | $51 | kalshi | /markets/matt-rhule-out-before-feb-1-2027-matt-rhule-kalshi-kxncaafcoachout-27feb01-mrhu |
| Brent Venables | 20¢ | +5pp | $17 | kalshi | /markets/brent-venables-out-before-feb-1-2027-brent-venable-kalshi-kxncaafcoachout-27feb01-bven |
| Kirby Smart | 8¢ | +7pp | $12 | kalshi | /markets/kirby-smart-out-before-feb-1-2027-kirby-smart-kalshi-kxncaafcoachout-27feb01-ksma |
| Steve Sarkisian | 14¢ | −6pp | $2 | kalshi | /markets/steve-sarkisian-out-before-feb-1-2027-steve-sarkis-kalshi-kxncaafcoachout-27feb01-ssar |
| Deion Sanders | 16¢ | −5pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/deion-sanders-out-before-feb-1-2027-deion-sanders-kalshi-kxncaafcoachout-27feb01-dsan |
| Dan Lanning | 10¢ | +1pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/dan-lanning-out-before-feb-1-2027-dan-lanning-kalshi-kxncaafcoachout-27feb01-dlan |
| Ryan Day | 14¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/ryan-day-out-before-feb-1-2027-ryan-day-kalshi-kxncaafcoachout-27feb01-rday |
| Curt Cignetti | 4¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/curt-cignetti-out-before-feb-1-2027-curt-cignetti-kalshi-kxncaafcoachout-27feb01-ccig |
| Mario Cristobal | 9¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/mario-cristobal-out-before-feb-1-2027-mario-cristo-kalshi-kxncaafcoachout-27feb01-mcri |
| Mike Elko | 7¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/mike-elko-out-before-feb-1-2027-mike-elko-kalshi-kxncaafcoachout-27feb01-melk |
| Pete Golding | 18¢ | +5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/pete-golding-out-before-feb-1-2027-pete-golding-kalshi-kxncaafcoachout-27feb01-pgol |
| Lane Kiffin | 5¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/lane-kiffin-out-before-feb-1-2027-lane-kiffin-kalshi-kxncaafcoachout-27feb01-lkif |
| Joey McGuire | 10¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/joey-mcguire-out-before-feb-1-2027-joey-mcguire-kalshi-kxncaafcoachout-27feb01-jmcg |
| Kalani Sitake | 8¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/kalani-sitake-out-before-feb-1-2027-kalani-sitake-kalshi-kxncaafcoachout-27feb01-ksit |
| Lincoln Riley | 17¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/lincoln-riley-out-before-feb-1-2027-lincoln-riley-kalshi-kxncaafcoachout-27feb01-lril |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | 5 |
| 2026-09-07 | 21 |
| 2026-09-12 | 25 |
| 2026-09-19 | 35 |

_18 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-09-17 · Mike Norvell +25pp 68→93¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-18 · Luke Fickell +18pp 50→68¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-18 · Kalen DeBoer +13pp 11→24¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-17 · Luke Fickell −12pp 62→50¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-19 · Kalen DeBoer −10pp 24→14¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract reflects the probability that Bret Bielema will be dismissed or depart as a college football head coach before February 1, 2027—roughly five months away. At 12%, the market is pricing this as an unlikely near-term outcome. Coaches typically face termination pressure during or immediately after losing seasons, and Bielema's team performance through the 2026 season will be the primary driver. If the team suffers significant losses or dysfunction, speculation about his job security would likely increase the contract price. Conversely, continued competitive success would keep the probability low. The resolution point is effectively the end of the regular season and any bowl game conclusions; January's coaching carousel activity and any public statements about his future status would provide the clearest signals before the February deadline.

### Key factors

- Team's win-loss record and bowl eligibility status through end of 2026 season will directly affect coaching stability
- Public comments from athletic director or booster groups regarding confidence in current coaching staff
- Comparison to market prices for other coaches (Luke Fickell at 25% suggests Bielema's situation is viewed as more stable)
- Timing of any contract extension or modification announcement during or after the season
- Presence or absence of reported buyout negotiations or departure talks in January

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ncaafcoachout
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ncaafcoachout

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