# Will the Big 12 win the College Football National Championship

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 17% across 5 contracts — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ncaafconf
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:38.973Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-03-01

## Headline

- Probability: 17% (liquidity-weighted across 5 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $18

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEC | 29¢ | +1pp | $18 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-sec-win-the-college-football-national-cha-kalshi-kxncaafconf-26-sec |
| Big Ten | 35¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-big-ten-win-the-college-football-national-kalshi-kxncaafconf-26-b10 |
| Big 12 | 7¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-big-12-win-the-college-football-national-kalshi-kxncaafconf-26-b12 |
| ACC | 6¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-acc-win-the-college-football-national-cha-kalshi-kxncaafconf-26-acc |
| Any Other Conference/Independent | 9¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-any-other-conferenceindependent-win-the-colle-kalshi-kxncaafconf-26-other |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | 29 |
| 2026-04-25 | 34 |
| 2026-05-02 | 21 |
| 2026-05-07 | 31 |

_22 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This 17% probability represents the chance that a Big 12 conference team wins the College Football National Championship. The assessment reflects that while the Big 12 has competitive programs, other conferences—particularly the SEC and Big Ten—have historically dominated the playoff in recent years. The probability could rise if Big 12 teams demonstrate strong performance during the regular season, particularly if Texas Tech (the conference favorite at 44 cents) or another contender builds an impressive resume. The main drivers are conference strength relative to competitors and individual team performance through the fall 2026 season, with the College Football Playoff selection process in December serving as the critical juncture where playoff qualification becomes clear.

### Key factors

- Texas Tech holds the highest win probability within the Big 12 at 44%, suggesting it is the conference's best-positioned contender but still faces substantial odds against national competition
- The Big 12's aggregate 17% probability is substantially lower than historical baseline expectations for Power Four conferences, indicating market skepticism about conference competitiveness
- The five largest contracts span five different Big 12 teams, with no single program commanding dominant probability, reflecting distributed rather than concentrated championship risk within the conference
- Regular season performance metrics from September through November 2026 will determine which Big 12 teams qualify for the 12-team playoff and build championship-viable resumes
- Historical conference playoff representation shows the Big 12 has secured fewer national championship appearances than the SEC and Big Ten over the past decade

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ncaafconf
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ncaafconf

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.