# Who will win College Football Coach of the Year

> Mario Cristobal leads at 6%, runner-up 6% across 6 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 46 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ncaafcoty
Updated: 2026-06-29T05:20:49.820Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-29

## Headline

- Leader: Mario Cristobal at 6%
- Runner-up: Dan Lanning at 6%
- Outcomes: 6 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Cristobal | 6¢ | +3pp | $27 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-college-football-coach-of-the-year-ma-kalshi-kxncaafcoty-27-mcri |
| Dan Lanning | 6¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-college-football-coach-of-the-year-da-kalshi-kxncaafcoty-27-dlan |
| Mike Elko | 5¢ | +1pp | $583 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-college-football-coach-of-the-year-mi-kalshi-kxncaafcoty-27-melk |
| Lane Kiffin | 3¢ | −1pp | $422 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-college-football-coach-of-the-year-la-kalshi-kxncaafcoty-27-lkif |
| Curt Cignetti | 3¢ | — | $13 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-college-football-coach-of-the-year-cu-kalshi-kxncaafcoty-27-ccig |
| Bob Chesney | 3¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-college-football-coach-of-the-year-bo-kalshi-kxncaafcoty-27-bche |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Mario Cristobal | Dan Lanning | Mike Elko |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-30 | — | 5 | — |
| 2026-05-31 | 2 | — | — |
| 2026-06-09 | 4 | — | 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | 4 | 5 | — |
| 2026-06-12 | 4 | — | — |
| 2026-06-17 | — | — | 5 |
| 2026-06-24 | — | 6 | — |
| 2026-06-28 | 7 | — | — |

_14 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-28 · Mario Cristobal +3pp 4→7¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

Dan Lanning is currently priced at 5% to win the 2026 College Football Coach of the Year award, reflecting his position as the frontrunner among the tracked candidates but still indicating substantial uncertainty. The award typically goes to coaches who deliver exceptional results relative to preseason expectations—often those guiding teams to playoff positions or major conference championships. Lanning's probability reflects his recent track record at LSU and the team's projected performance this season. The main drivers of this probability are regular-season performance (particularly strength of schedule, win-loss record, and strength of conference competition) and late-season tournament results, which will clarify which coaches delivered the most surprising or dominant campaigns. The critical resolution period occurs in December 2026 through early January 2027, when bowl game results and playoff seeding become finalized, providing voters the full body of work needed to make their decision.

### Key factors

- Dan Lanning's team performance through the 2026 regular season and bowl games relative to preseason expectations
- Whether LSU competes in the College Football Playoff or high-tier bowl games
- Competitive performance of Lane Kiffin (5%), Curt Cignetti (3%), Ryan Day (3%), and Bob Chesney (3%) as alternative outcomes
- The voting pattern of the 2026 award voters, typically determined by media consensus in late December and early January
- Whether an underdog coach outside the five tracked contracts delivers an unexpectedly strong season that reshapes voter preferences

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ncaafcoty
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ncaafcoty

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.