# Montana wins FCS National Championship in 2026-27 season

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 16% across 6 contracts — refreshed 14 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ncaaffcs
Updated: 2026-10-12T16:20:52.433Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-26

## Headline

- Probability: 16% (liquidity-weighted across 6 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $432

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montana St. | 30¢ | −2pp | $189 | kalshi | /markets/montana-st-wins-fcs-national-championship-in-2026-kalshi-kxncaaffcs-27-mtst |
| Montana | 15¢ | — | $118 | kalshi | /markets/montana-wins-fcs-national-championship-in-2026-27-kalshi-kxncaaffcs-27-mont |
| South Dakota St. | 37¢ | — | $115 | kalshi | /markets/south-dakota-st-wins-fcs-national-championship-in-kalshi-kxncaaffcs-27-sdst |
| Tarleton St. | 3¢ | — | $10 | kalshi | /markets/tarleton-st-wins-fcs-national-championship-in-2026-kalshi-kxncaaffcs-27-tarl |
| South Dakota | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/south-dakota-wins-fcs-national-championship-in-202-kalshi-kxncaaffcs-27-sdak |
| Lehigh | 8¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/lehigh-wins-fcs-national-championship-in-2026-27-s-kalshi-kxncaaffcs-27-leh |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | 11 |
| 2026-09-18 | 20 |
| 2026-09-19 | 37 |
| 2026-09-24 | 35 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

An 11% probability means traders assess roughly a 1-in-9 chance that the University of Montana Grizzlies win the FCS National Championship in the 2026-27 season. This probability reflects market pricing for a team competing in a highly competitive Division I FCS landscape against dozens of other eligible programs. Montana's championship odds are driven by factors including current roster composition, recruiting strength, coaching continuity, and recent on-field performance relative to conference rivals. The main uncertainty will resolve through the regular season performance beginning in fall 2026 and continuing through the playoff tournament concluding in January 2027. Key upcoming developments include preseason rankings, early-season game results, and playoff seeding announcements that will significantly influence championship probability adjustments.

### Key factors

- Montana's recent FCS playoff history and win-loss record compared to current roster strength and returning starters
- Strength of schedule during the 2026-27 regular season and conference competition within the Big Sky Conference
- Comparative probabilities of rival programs (Montana State at 25% and South Dakota State at 4%) suggest relative market confidence levels
- Coaching staff continuity, recruiting class performance, and injuries to key players heading into fall training camp
- Playoff tournament structure and seeding outcomes, which determine tournament path difficulty and access to games against lower-seeded opponents

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ncaaffcs
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ncaaffcs

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