# Will Notre Dame reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 9% across 14 contracts — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ncaaffinalist
Updated: 2026-06-30T01:20:49.731Z
Category: sports
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-25

## Headline

- Probability: 9% (liquidity-weighted across 14 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (14 contracts)
- 24h volume: $15

## Bound contracts (14)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio St. | 27¢ | +1pp | $14 | kalshi | /markets/will-ohio-st-reach-the-college-football-playoff-na-kalshi-kxncaaffinalist-27-osu |
| Michigan | 7¢ | ±0 | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-michigan-reach-the-college-football-playoff-n-kalshi-kxncaaffinalist-27-mich |
| Oklahoma | 5¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-oklahoma-reach-the-college-football-playoff-n-kalshi-kxncaaffinalist-27-okla |
| Alabama | 12¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-alabama-reach-the-college-football-playoff-na-kalshi-kxncaaffinalist-27-ala |
| Auburn | 3¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-auburn-reach-the-college-football-playoff-nat-kalshi-kxncaaffinalist-27-aub |
| BYU | 4¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-byu-reach-the-college-football-playoff-nation-kalshi-kxncaaffinalist-27-byu |
| California | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-california-reach-the-college-football-playoff-kalshi-kxncaaffinalist-27-cal |
| Clemson | 4¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-clemson-reach-the-college-football-playoff-na-kalshi-kxncaaffinalist-27-clem |
| Georgia Tech | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-georgia-tech-reach-the-college-football-playo-kalshi-kxncaaffinalist-27-gt |
| Indiana | 17¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-indiana-reach-the-college-football-playoff-na-kalshi-kxncaaffinalist-27-ind |
| Iowa | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-iowa-reach-the-college-football-playoff-natio-kalshi-kxncaaffinalist-27-iowa |
| James Madison | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-james-madison-reach-the-college-football-play-kalshi-kxncaaffinalist-27-jmu |
| LSU | 9¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-lsu-reach-the-college-football-playoff-nation-kalshi-kxncaaffinalist-27-lsu |
| Miami (FL) | 29¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-miami-fl-reach-the-college-football-playoff-n-kalshi-kxncaaffinalist-27-mia |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-31 | 7 |
| 2026-06-16 | 16 |
| 2026-06-23 | 8 |
| 2026-06-29 | 18 |

_22 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-28 · Miami (FL) +6pp 25→31¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-23 · LSU +4pp 7→11¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · LSU −4pp 11→7¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-26 · Miami (FL) +4pp 21→25¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Miami (FL) +3pp 19→22¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 10% probability reflects a relatively low likelihood that Notre Dame will advance to the College Football Playoff National Championship Game during the 2026 season. The market assessment is driven by two primary considerations: Notre Dame's historical performance and competitive positioning in college football, and the difficulty of reaching a championship game when eight teams qualify for the expanded playoff format. The regular season, culminating in early December 2026, represents the critical juncture—Notre Dame must achieve sufficient wins and rankings to secure a playoff berth, then win consecutive postseason games to reach the championship. Resolution will occur in January 2027 when the playoff semifinals and championship game conclude. The relatively low volume on this specific contract suggests modest market confidence compared to other football outcomes being traded.

### Key factors

- Notre Dame's 2025 final record and playoff seeding position will largely determine 2026 preseason expectations and baseline playoff probability
- The strength of Notre Dame's 2026 schedule, including conference opponents and nonconference matchups, directly affects their ability to compile a playoff-qualifying record
- Historical data shows teams with sub-50% championship game probability typically require either unexpected roster improvements or weak competitive peer performance to reach that threshold
- Market volume of $2,591 over 24 hours is substantial, suggesting active pricing but not exceptional attention compared to major team championship contracts
- Notre Dame's undefeated regular season probability is priced at 33¢, indicating the market views a championship game appearance as requiring near-perfect play

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ncaaffinalist
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ncaaffinalist

## License

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