# Will UMass win the College Football Mid-American Conference Championship

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 13% across 3 contracts — refreshed 4 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ncaafmac
Updated: 2026-05-03T21:50:59.346Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-03

## Headline

- Probability: 13% (liquidity-weighted across 3 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UMass | 7¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-umass-win-the-college-football-mid-american-c-kalshi-kxncaafmac-26-mass |
| Miami (OH) | 15¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-miami-oh-win-the-college-football-mid-america-kalshi-kxncaafmac-26-moh |
| Western Michigan | 17¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-western-michigan-win-the-college-football-mid-kalshi-kxncaafmac-26-wmu |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 3 |
| 2026-04-17 | 16 |
| 2026-05-03 | 17 |

_9 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability represents the odds that UMass wins the Mid-American Conference Championship in college football this season. At 13%, the market is pricing UMass as a significant underdog relative to traditional powerhouses. The low probability reflects UMass's historical performance in the MAC and typical roster composition compared to stronger regional competitors. The main factor driving this level is UMass's competitive standing within the conference—teams with stronger recruiting classes, more experienced quarterbacks, or recent tournament success typically command higher odds. The biggest catalyst will be the actual 2026 season performance, with early games and conference matchups in autumn determining whether UMass can realistically contend for the title. Additional clarity will emerge as preseason rankings and team rosters are finalized in summer 2026.

### Key factors

- UMass's historical win-loss record and MAC standings placement relative to peer institutions
- Quarterback depth, offensive line health, and defensive roster composition entering the 2026 season
- Conference strength distribution—whether other MAC teams have significant roster improvements or coaching changes
- Early season performance through September and October 2026 games against ranked or strong MAC opponents
- Strength of schedule down the stretch and head-to-head results against top MAC contenders in the regular season

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ncaafmac
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ncaafmac

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.