# Will Miami (OH) qualify for the College Football Mid-American Conference Championship Game

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 19% across 8 contracts — refreshed 1 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ncaafmacqual
Updated: 2026-09-21T21:20:54.255Z
Category: sports
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-10

## Headline

- Probability: 19% (liquidity-weighted across 8 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (8 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (8)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Akron | 12¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-akron-qualify-for-the-college-football-mid-am-kalshi-kxncaafmacqual-26-akr |
| Ball St. | 11¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ball-st-qualify-for-the-college-football-mid-kalshi-kxncaafmacqual-26-ball |
| Bowling Green | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bowling-green-qualify-for-the-college-footbal-kalshi-kxncaafmacqual-26-bgsu |
| Buffalo | 18¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-buffalo-qualify-for-the-college-football-mid-kalshi-kxncaafmacqual-26-buff |
| Eastern Michigan | 9¢ | −11pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-eastern-michigan-qualify-for-the-college-foot-kalshi-kxncaafmacqual-26-emu |
| Miami (OH) | 19¢ | −10pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-miami-oh-qualify-for-the-college-football-mid-kalshi-kxncaafmacqual-26-moh |
| Toledo | 34¢ | −7pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-toledo-qualify-for-the-college-football-mid-a-kalshi-kxncaafmacqual-26-tol |
| Western Michigan | 46¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-western-michigan-qualify-for-the-college-foot-kalshi-kxncaafmacqual-26-wmu |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | 28 |
| 2026-09-07 | 21 |
| 2026-09-12 | 34 |
| 2026-09-19 | 31 |

_24 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-09-17 · Western Michigan +14pp 35→49¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-17 · Miami (OH) −13pp 35→22¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-18 · Eastern Michigan −11pp 20→9¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-19 · Miami (OH) −10pp 30→20¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-18 · Miami (OH) +8pp 22→30¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 20% probability indicates a one-in-five chance that Miami University (Ohio) finishes among the top teams in the Mid-American Conference and qualifies for the conference championship game. The relatively low probability reflects Miami's historical performance in the MAC and current roster composition compared to stronger contenders like Western Michigan (30%) and Toledo (26%). Miami's chances depend on regular-season win-loss record, conference strength-of-schedule performance, and whether they avoid major injuries to key players. The primary uncertainty resolver will be the completion of the 2026 college football regular season in late November, when final MAC standings determine the two teams advancing to the championship game. Between now and then, weekly game results will incrementally clarify Miami's actual competitive position against division rivals and overall MAC competition.

### Key factors

- Miami (OH)'s current win-loss record and remaining schedule strength through November 2026
- Head-to-head and conference performance gaps versus Toledo (26¢) and Western Michigan (30¢) as measured by week-to-week rankings
- Injury status of Miami's starting quarterback and defensive line depth as the season progresses
- Miami's historical MAC championship appearance rate (frequency and recency of prior conference title game berths)
- Conference-wide parity or dominance patterns—whether one or two teams significantly outpace the rest versus a more competitive field

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ncaafmacqual
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ncaafmacqual

## License

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