# Will North Dakota St. win the College Football Mountain West Championship

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 8% across 3 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ncaafmwc
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:44.667Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-03

## Headline

- Probability: 8% (liquidity-weighted across 3 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Mexico | 13¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-new-mexico-win-the-college-football-mountain-kalshi-kxncaafmwc-26-unm |
| North Dakota St. | 6¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-north-dakota-st-win-the-college-football-moun-kalshi-kxncaafmwc-26-ndsu |
| UNLV | 4¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-unlv-win-the-college-football-mountain-west-c-kalshi-kxncaafmwc-26-unlv |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 24 |
| 2026-04-23 | 3 |
| 2026-05-02 | 10 |
| 2026-05-08 | 4 |

_8 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · North Dakota St. +3pp 3→6¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract estimates North Dakota State has a 10% chance of winning the College Football Mountain West Conference Championship in 2026. The Bison must compete against established programs in a competitive conference, which historically has favored schools with greater resources and recruiting advantages. The current probability reflects typical preseason assessments for mid-tier FCS programs attempting to win a Power Conference championship, an outcome requiring superior performance throughout the regular season. Key factors include roster strength, coaching decisions, and performance against ranked opponents during conference play. The championship will be decided following the conclusion of the regular season and Mountain West Conference tournament, with the winner determined after conference games conclude in November and December 2026.

### Key factors

- North Dakota State competes in the FCS (Football Championship Subdivision) while the Mountain West is a Power Conference, creating a structural competitive disadvantage
- The team's roster depth, transfer portal acquisitions, and recruiting class quality relative to conference opponents will directly affect conference standings
- Head-to-head performance against ranked Mountain West teams during regular season conference play will be the primary determinant of championship viability
- Conference tournament seeding and potential playoff scenarios depend on win-loss record through November 2026
- Historical precedent shows FCS programs rarely win Power Conference championships, though occasional upsets occur with exceptional seasons

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ncaafmwc
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ncaafmwc

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