# Will San Diego St. win the College Football Pac-12 Championship

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 50% across 3 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ncaafpac12
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:43.724Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-03

## Headline

- Probability: 50% (liquidity-weighted across 3 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boise St. | 31¢ | +25pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-boise-st-win-the-college-football-pac-12-cham-kalshi-kxncaafpac12-26-bsu |
| San Diego St. | 60¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-san-diego-st-win-the-college-football-pac-12-kalshi-kxncaafpac12-26-sdsu |
| Washington St. | 60¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-washington-st-win-the-college-football-pac-12-kalshi-kxncaafpac12-26-wsu |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | 3 |
| 2026-04-14 | 6 |
| 2026-04-18 | 31 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This market estimates a 50% probability that San Diego State will win the 2026 College Football Pac-12 Championship. The market reflects moderate confidence in the Aztecs' ability to compete for the conference title, suggesting they are viewed as roughly equal contenders with other programs. Factors supporting this level include San Diego State's roster composition, recruiting trajectory, and recent competitive performance, while headwinds might include depth at key positions, schedule strength, and competition from established Pac-12 programs. The probability will likely shift as the 2026 football season approaches and preseason evaluations emerge, with key data points being spring game performance, summer training reports, and preseason polls that provide concrete assessments of team strength relative to conference peers.

### Key factors

- San Diego State's roster talent level and transfer portal acquisitions relative to other Pac-12 contenders
- Quarterback stability and offensive line composition entering the 2026 season
- Strength of schedule and distribution of challenging matchups throughout the conference slate
- Historical consistency of San Diego State's coaching staff and program trajectory in conference play
- Injury status of key defensive starters and defensive line depth compared to conference rivals

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ncaafpac12
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ncaafpac12

## License

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