# Will Colorado St. qualify for the College Football Pac-12 Championship Game

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 13% across 4 contracts — refreshed 47 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ncaafpac12qual
Updated: 2026-09-25T06:20:49.786Z
Category: sports
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-10

## Headline

- Probability: 13% (liquidity-weighted across 4 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $46

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas St. | 17¢ | +3pp | $38 | kalshi | /markets/will-texas-st-qualify-for-the-college-football-pac-kalshi-kxncaafpac12qual-26-txst |
| San Diego St. | 12¢ | −4pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-san-diego-st-qualify-for-the-college-football-kalshi-kxncaafpac12qual-26-sdsu |
| Fresno St. | 17¢ | −8pp | $3 | kalshi | /markets/will-fresno-st-qualify-for-the-college-football-pa-kalshi-kxncaafpac12qual-26-fres |
| Washington St. | 6¢ | −6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-washington-st-qualify-for-the-college-footbal-kalshi-kxncaafpac12qual-26-wsu |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | 12 |
| 2026-09-11 | 11 |
| 2026-09-18 | 13 |
| 2026-09-25 | 10 |

_24 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-09-25 · Fresno St. −8pp 20→12¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-24 · Washington St. +8pp 4→12¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-23 · Fresno St. +7pp 13→20¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-25 · Washington St. −6pp 12→6¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-19 · San Diego St. −5pp 22→17¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects Colorado State's estimated chance of reaching the Pac-12 Championship Game during the 2026 college football season. The 15% valuation suggests market participants view the Rams as an underdog compared to stronger conference contenders like Boise State (34%) and San Diego State (21%). Colorado State's probability depends primarily on regular-season performance, conference strength relative to peers, and injury developments throughout the fall. The most significant resolution catalyst will be the outcome of conference games beginning in late August through November, with the championship game typically held in early December. Currently, the lack of recent trading volume indicates limited immediate attention, though odds could shift substantially as preseason assessments emerge and actual games begin.

### Key factors

- Colorado State's 2025 season record and returning talent depth versus Pac-12 rivals entering the 2026 season
- Strength of schedule in conference play, particularly matchups against Boise State, San Diego State, and other top-tier Pac-12 teams
- Head-to-head win-loss performance in divisional games that directly determine playoff qualification standings
- Injury status of key offensive and defensive players throughout the regular season, particularly at quarterback and defensive line
- Conference's overall competitiveness and whether two-loss records are sufficient to qualify for the championship game versus typical championship-winning records

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ncaafpac12qual
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ncaafpac12qual

## License

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