# Will Ohio St. qualify for the College Football Playoffs

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 42% across 20 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ncaafplayoff
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:44.674Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-29

## Headline

- Probability: 42% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Notre Dame | 78¢ | +1pp | $801 | kalshi | /markets/will-notre-dame-qualify-for-the-college-football-p-kalshi-kxncaafplayoff-26-nd |
| Virginia Tech | 6¢ | −6pp | $125 | kalshi | /markets/will-virginia-tech-qualify-for-the-college-footbal-kalshi-kxncaafplayoff-26-vt |
| Alabama | 41¢ | +1pp | $55 | kalshi | /markets/will-alabama-qualify-for-the-college-football-play-kalshi-kxncaafplayoff-26-ala |
| Ohio St. | 54¢ | +3pp | $14 | kalshi | /markets/will-ohio-st-qualify-for-the-college-football-play-kalshi-kxncaafplayoff-26-osu |
| Texas | 67¢ | +2pp | $13 | kalshi | /markets/will-texas-qualify-for-the-college-football-playof-kalshi-kxncaafplayoff-26-tex |
| LSU | 37¢ | ±0 | $11 | kalshi | /markets/will-lsu-qualify-for-the-college-football-playoffs-kalshi-kxncaafplayoff-26-lsu |
| Michigan | 26¢ | −4pp | $7 | kalshi | /markets/will-michigan-qualify-for-the-college-football-pla-kalshi-kxncaafplayoff-26-mich |
| Iowa | 16¢ | +5pp | $7 | kalshi | /markets/will-iowa-qualify-for-the-college-football-playoff-kalshi-kxncaafplayoff-26-iowa |
| Utah | 27¢ | +6pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-utah-qualify-for-the-college-football-playoff-kalshi-kxncaafplayoff-26-utah |
| Oklahoma | 34¢ | +2pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-oklahoma-qualify-for-the-college-football-pla-kalshi-kxncaafplayoff-26-okla |
| Louisville | 11¢ | ±0 | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-louisville-qualify-for-the-college-football-p-kalshi-kxncaafplayoff-26-lou |
| Georgia Tech | 7¢ | +1pp | $4 | kalshi | /markets/will-georgia-tech-qualify-for-the-college-football-kalshi-kxncaafplayoff-26-gt |
| Indiana | 67¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-indiana-qualify-for-the-college-football-play-kalshi-kxncaafplayoff-26-ind |
| Oregon | 68¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-oregon-qualify-for-the-college-football-playo-kalshi-kxncaafplayoff-26-ore |
| Georgia | 68¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-georgia-qualify-for-the-college-football-play-kalshi-kxncaafplayoff-26-uga |
| Texas Tech | 54¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-texas-tech-qualify-for-the-college-football-p-kalshi-kxncaafplayoff-26-ttu |
| Texas A&M | 43¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-texas-am-qualify-for-the-college-football-pla-kalshi-kxncaafplayoff-26-txam |
| Miami (FL) | 68¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-miami-fl-qualify-for-the-college-football-pla-kalshi-kxncaafplayoff-26-mia |
| USC | 32¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-usc-qualify-for-the-college-football-playoffs-kalshi-kxncaafplayoff-26-usc |
| Ole Miss | 36¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ole-miss-qualify-for-the-college-football-pla-kalshi-kxncaafplayoff-26-miss |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 42 |
| 2026-04-25 | 48 |
| 2026-05-02 | 45 |
| 2026-05-08 | 49 |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · Ohio St. −26pp 67→41¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Ohio St. +14pp 53→67¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Ohio St. +9pp 40→49¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Utah +6pp 14→20¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Iowa +5pp 8→13¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 26% probability reflects the likelihood that Ohio State football will secure one of the four spots in the College Football Playoff this season. The rating appears conservative given Ohio State's historical strength and resources, likely reflecting uncertainty about the team's specific roster composition, coaching adjustments, and the competitive quality of the Big Ten conference in 2026. The primary driver of this probability will be the team's performance during the regular season, particularly in high-profile matchups and the conference championship. The main catalyst for resolving this uncertainty is the completion of the regular season (typically November-December 2026) and the subsequent playoff selection announcement, which will definitively determine whether Ohio State finished among the nation's top four teams.

### Key factors

- Ohio State's win-loss record and strength of schedule relative to other Power Four conferences through the 2026 regular season
- Head-to-head performance against top-ranked opponents, especially within the Big Ten, which will significantly influence playoff committee rankings
- Conference championship outcomes and whether Ohio State wins or loses the Big Ten title game in December 2026
- Injury status of key players and coaching staff continuity heading into and through the season
- Relative performance of other potential playoff contenders, as selection is comparative rather than absolute

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

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- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ncaafplayoff
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ncaafplayoff

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