# Will Miami (FL) qualify for the College Football Playoff Quarterfinals in the 2026-27 season

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 13% across 15 contracts — refreshed 13 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ncaafqf
Updated: 2026-07-27T08:20:50.330Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-31

## Headline

- Probability: 13% (liquidity-weighted across 15 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (15 contracts)
- 24h volume: $724

## Bound contracts (15)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMU | 4¢ | — | $691 | kalshi | /markets/will-smu-qualify-for-the-college-football-playoff-kalshi-kxncaafqf-27-smu |
| Texas | 20¢ | +1pp | $31 | kalshi | /markets/will-texas-qualify-for-the-college-football-playof-kalshi-kxncaafqf-27-tex |
| Oregon | 37¢ | +24pp | $2 | kalshi | /markets/will-oregon-qualify-for-the-college-football-playo-kalshi-kxncaafqf-27-ore |
| Alabama | 3¢ | −23pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-alabama-qualify-for-the-college-football-play-kalshi-kxncaafqf-27-ala |
| Auburn | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-auburn-qualify-for-the-college-football-playo-kalshi-kxncaafqf-27-aub |
| BYU | 6¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-byu-qualify-for-the-college-football-playoff-kalshi-kxncaafqf-27-byu |
| California | 6¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-california-qualify-for-the-college-football-p-kalshi-kxncaafqf-27-cal |
| Clemson | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-clemson-qualify-for-the-college-football-play-kalshi-kxncaafqf-27-clem |
| Indiana | 14¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-indiana-qualify-for-the-college-football-play-kalshi-kxncaafqf-27-ind |
| Iowa | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-iowa-qualify-for-the-college-football-playoff-kalshi-kxncaafqf-27-iowa |
| LSU | 10¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-lsu-qualify-for-the-college-football-playoff-kalshi-kxncaafqf-27-lsu |
| Miami (FL) | 19¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-miami-fl-qualify-for-the-college-football-pla-kalshi-kxncaafqf-27-mia |
| Ole Miss | 5¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ole-miss-qualify-for-the-college-football-pla-kalshi-kxncaafqf-27-miss |
| Missouri | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-missouri-qualify-for-the-college-football-pla-kalshi-kxncaafqf-27-mizz |
| Notre Dame | 56¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-notre-dame-qualify-for-the-college-football-p-kalshi-kxncaafqf-27-nd |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-09 | 21 |
| 2026-07-13 | 31 |
| 2026-07-19 | 19 |
| 2026-07-26 | 19 |

_14 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-23 · Miami (FL) −48pp 64→16¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-23 · Oregon +24pp 12→36¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-24 · Alabama −23pp 26→3¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-23 · Texas +12pp 6→18¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-23 · Indiana −6pp 20→14¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability indicates that Miami has roughly a two-in-three chance of reaching the College Football Playoff Quarterfinals in the 2026-27 season. The current 68% assessment reflects Miami's historical program strength and recent recruiting momentum, balanced against the competitive depth of the ACC and the difficulty of maintaining top-tier performance through a full college football season. The primary driver of this probability would be Miami's performance during the 2026 regular season, particularly results against conference rivals and non-conference opponents that test strength of schedule. The key catalyst for resolving uncertainty will be the completion of the regular season in November-December 2026, when selection committees evaluate final standings, strength of schedule, and head-to-head records to determine the twelve playoff qualifiers. Miami's exact playoff seeding and entry point would depend on whether they finish as a conference champion or at-large selection.

### Key factors

- Miami's win-loss record and conference standing through the 2026 regular season, which directly determines playoff eligibility
- Strength of schedule metrics, including quality wins against ranked opponents and the competitiveness of the ACC conference in 2026
- Head-to-head results in November matchups against peer-level competitors that selection committees use for tiebreaker evaluation
- Injury status and roster development of key players through training camp and mid-season, affecting team performance trajectory
- Changes to playoff selection criteria or expansion that could alter the threshold for reaching quarterfinal round qualification

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ncaafqf
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ncaafqf

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