# Will James Madison win the College Football Sun Belt Championship

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 8% across 3 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ncaafsbelt
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:38.059Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-03

## Headline

- Probability: 8% (liquidity-weighted across 3 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Madison | 5¢ | −10pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-james-madison-win-the-college-football-sun-be-kalshi-kxncaafsbelt-26-jmu |
| Old Dominion | 8¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-old-dominion-win-the-college-football-sun-bel-kalshi-kxncaafsbelt-26-odu |
| Troy | 10¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-troy-win-the-college-football-sun-belt-champi-kalshi-kxncaafsbelt-26-troy |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-19 | 11 |
| 2026-04-25 | 1 |
| 2026-05-02 | 8 |

_6 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This 8% probability reflects the implied likelihood that James Madison University wins the Sun Belt Conference football championship in the 2026 season. The low odds suggest market participants view Madison as a significant underdog relative to stronger programs in the conference. The probability would be driven primarily by Madison's roster strength and offseason personnel changes compared to established competitors, along with early-season performance indicators. The actual championship game, typically held in December, will serve as the decisive event. Additional clarity should emerge during preseason assessments in August and through the opening weeks of the season, when actual team performance becomes observable.

### Key factors

- James Madison's historical performance and recent trajectory in FBS/Bowl Subdivision competition
- Strength and depth of competing Sun Belt programs in 2026, particularly traditional powers
- Quality of Madison's quarterback play and offensive personnel entering the season
- Head coach stability and coaching staff composition relative to conference rivals
- Preseason rankings and expert consensus projections released in summer 2026

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ncaafsbelt
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ncaafsbelt

## License

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