# Will Old Dominion qualify for the College Football Sun Belt Championship Game

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 16% across 11 contracts — refreshed 47 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ncaafsbeltqual
Updated: 2026-09-25T06:20:51.043Z
Category: sports
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-10

## Headline

- Probability: 16% (liquidity-weighted across 11 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (11 contracts)
- 24h volume: $112

## Bound contracts (11)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy | 16¢ | +6pp | $35 | kalshi | /markets/will-troy-qualify-for-the-college-football-sun-bel-kalshi-kxncaafsbeltqual-26-troy |
| Old Dominion | 12¢ | −7pp | $23 | kalshi | /markets/will-old-dominion-qualify-for-the-college-football-kalshi-kxncaafsbeltqual-26-odu |
| James Madison | 51¢ | ±0 | $18 | kalshi | /markets/will-james-madison-qualify-for-the-college-footbal-kalshi-kxncaafsbeltqual-26-jmu |
| Arkansas St. | 13¢ | +1pp | $16 | kalshi | /markets/will-arkansas-st-qualify-for-the-college-football-kalshi-kxncaafsbeltqual-26-arst |
| Louisiana Tech | 20¢ | −3pp | $10 | kalshi | /markets/will-louisiana-tech-qualify-for-the-college-footba-kalshi-kxncaafsbeltqual-26-lt |
| Louisiana | 20¢ | +2pp | $6 | kalshi | /markets/will-louisiana-qualify-for-the-college-football-su-kalshi-kxncaafsbeltqual-26-ull |
| South Alabama | 12¢ | −2pp | $4 | kalshi | /markets/will-south-alabama-qualify-for-the-college-footbal-kalshi-kxncaafsbeltqual-26-usa |
| Appalachian St. | 5¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-appalachian-st-qualify-for-the-college-footba-kalshi-kxncaafsbeltqual-26-app |
| Georgia St. | 8¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-georgia-st-qualify-for-the-college-football-s-kalshi-kxncaafsbeltqual-26-gast |
| Louisiana-Monroe | 9¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-louisiana-monroe-qualify-for-the-college-foot-kalshi-kxncaafsbeltqual-26-ulm |
| Southern Miss | 10¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-southern-miss-qualify-for-the-college-footbal-kalshi-kxncaafsbeltqual-26-usm |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | 9 |
| 2026-09-11 | 17 |
| 2026-09-18 | 15 |
| 2026-09-25 | 8 |

_24 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-09-23 · James Madison +17pp 34→51¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-19 · Troy −13pp 20→7¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-18 · James Madison +13pp 15→28¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-24 · Louisiana −10pp 20→10¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-23 · Louisiana Tech +8pp 11→19¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 7% probability indicates a low likelihood that Old Dominion will reach the Sun Belt Conference championship game this season. The market is pricing in Old Dominion as a long-shot candidate, facing stiff competition from programs like James Madison (13%), Louisiana (6%), Arkansas State (6%), and Troy (5%). Old Dominion's path to the championship game depends primarily on their regular season win-loss record and performance in conference play, as typically only the top teams qualify. The main factors moving this probability would be their actual on-field performance throughout the 2026 college football season and head-to-head results against other contenders. The championship game itself will ultimately resolve this contract once the regular season concludes and conference standings are finalized, likely in November or early December 2026.

### Key factors

- Old Dominion's win-loss record during the 2026 regular season, with conference games being weighted most heavily in championship qualification
- Head-to-head results against other top Sun Belt contenders, particularly James Madison, Louisiana, Arkansas State, and Troy
- The relative strength of schedule Old Dominion faces compared to other Sun Belt programs competing for the two championship game spots
- Potential tiebreakers or conference tie-breaking procedures if multiple teams finish with identical conference records
- Coaching staff decisions and roster composition entering the 2026 season that determine team competitiveness

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ncaafsbeltqual
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ncaafsbeltqual

## License

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