# Will Vanderbilt win the College Football SEC Championship

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 11% across 8 contracts — refreshed 1 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ncaafsec
Updated: 2026-07-13T06:20:49.860Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-03

## Headline

- Probability: 11% (liquidity-weighted across 8 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (8 contracts)
- 24h volume: $168

## Bound contracts (8)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LSU | 9¢ | +2pp | $128 | kalshi | /markets/will-lsu-win-the-college-football-sec-championship-kalshi-kxncaafsec-26-lsu |
| Alabama | 10¢ | +1pp | $38 | kalshi | /markets/will-alabama-win-the-college-football-sec-champion-kalshi-kxncaafsec-26-ala |
| Georgia | 21¢ | ±0 | $2 | kalshi | /markets/will-georgia-win-the-college-football-sec-champion-kalshi-kxncaafsec-26-uga |
| Texas | 20¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-texas-win-the-college-football-sec-championsh-kalshi-kxncaafsec-26-tex |
| Tennessee | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tennessee-win-the-college-football-sec-champi-kalshi-kxncaafsec-26-tenn |
| Ole Miss | 5¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ole-miss-win-the-college-football-sec-champio-kalshi-kxncaafsec-26-miss |
| Texas A&M | 8¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-texas-am-win-the-college-football-sec-champio-kalshi-kxncaafsec-26-txam |
| Oklahoma | 8¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-oklahoma-win-the-college-football-sec-champio-kalshi-kxncaafsec-26-okla |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-13 | 4 |
| 2026-06-29 | 10 |
| 2026-07-06 | 13 |
| 2026-07-12 | 10 |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability indicates that markets assess Vanderbilt has a 10% chance of winning the SEC Championship in 2026. Vanderbilt would need to perform significantly better than their recent historical performance, as they have not won an SEC title since 1982 and typically finish near the bottom of the conference. The current estimate reflects their roster quality, coaching staff, and strength-of-schedule relative to established powerhouses like Texas, Georgia, and Alabama. The main catalyst resolving this uncertainty will be the actual 2026 college football season, with early-season performance against conference opponents in September and October providing the clearest signal of championship viability. Additionally, any significant changes to their roster through recruiting or transfers could shift this probability before the season begins.

### Key factors

- Vanderbilt has finished in the SEC's bottom tier in most recent seasons, with limited recent championship infrastructure compared to conference competitors
- Texas trades at 11% for the national championship while Vanderbilt trades at 10% for just the SEC championship, suggesting a substantial talent gap between them
- The 2026 football season has not yet begun, meaning this probability is based entirely on pre-season roster evaluation and coaching staff assessments
- Conference expansion and playoff format changes may affect the competitive landscape and path to championship for all SEC teams
- Historical track record shows SEC championships typically go to programs with established recruiting pipelines and sustained winning records

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ncaafsec
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ncaafsec

## License

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