# Will Texas qualify for the College Football SEC Championship Game

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 18% across 8 contracts — refreshed 45 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ncaafsecq
Updated: 2026-07-27T06:20:49.665Z
Category: sports
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-03

## Headline

- Probability: 18% (liquidity-weighted across 8 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (8 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (8)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas | 28¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-texas-qualify-for-the-college-football-sec-ch-kalshi-kxncaafsecq-26-tex |
| Georgia | 36¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-georgia-qualify-for-the-college-football-sec-kalshi-kxncaafsecq-26-uga |
| Alabama | 5¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-alabama-qualify-for-the-college-football-sec-kalshi-kxncaafsecq-26-ala |
| LSU | 14¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-lsu-qualify-for-the-college-football-sec-cham-kalshi-kxncaafsecq-26-lsu |
| Ole Miss | 11¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ole-miss-qualify-for-the-college-football-sec-kalshi-kxncaafsecq-26-miss |
| Texas A&M | 11¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-texas-am-qualify-for-the-college-football-sec-kalshi-kxncaafsecq-26-txam |
| South Carolina | 27¢ | +25pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-south-carolina-qualify-for-the-college-footba-kalshi-kxncaafsecq-26-scar |
| Oklahoma | 8¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-oklahoma-qualify-for-the-college-football-sec-kalshi-kxncaafsecq-26-okla |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-08 | 8 |
| 2026-07-13 | 12 |
| 2026-07-20 | 18 |
| 2026-07-27 | 37 |

_14 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-20 · Georgia +28pp 11→39¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-23 · South Carolina +25pp 2→27¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-20 · Texas +24pp 14→38¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-22 · Texas A&M −24pp 33→9¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-22 · Texas −22pp 38→16¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 35% probability reflects the likelihood that Texas will finish as one of the top two teams in the SEC regular season and qualify for the conference championship game. The relatively modest odds despite Texas being a major program reflect the competitive depth of the SEC, where multiple strong teams compete for limited championship spots. Texas's qualification chances hinge primarily on win-loss record in conference play and head-to-head results against other SEC contenders. The outcome will be largely determined by performance throughout the 2026 college football season, with the picture clarifying as conference games are played from September through November.

### Key factors

- Texas's SEC conference record and strength of schedule compared to other SEC teams, as the top two finishers qualify
- Head-to-head results against other potential SEC Championship contenders like South Carolina (currently priced at 20¢) and Texas A&M (33¢)
- Injury status of key Texas players throughout the season, particularly at quarterback and on the offensive line
- Strength of Texas's non-conference schedule and how those results affect playoff/championship resume strength
- Performance in September and October games that establish momentum and directly impact the final conference standings

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ncaafsecq
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ncaafsecq

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.