# Will the Oklahoma college football team finish in the top 3 in the Southeastern Conference in the 2026 regular season

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 23% across 20 contracts — refreshed 47 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ncaafsecregtop
Updated: 2026-08-27T07:21:45.844Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-02-07

## Headline

- Probability: 23% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $491

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia | 69¢ | +8pp | $219 | kalshi | /markets/will-georgia-finish-in-the-top-5-in-the-southeaste-kalshi-kxncaafsecregtop-27t5-uga |
| Georgia | 45¢ | +3pp | $112 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-georgia-college-football-team-finish-in-t-kalshi-kxncaafsecregtop-27t3-uga |
| Alabama | 35¢ | +1pp | $70 | kalshi | /markets/will-alabama-finish-in-the-top-4-in-the-southeaste-kalshi-kxncaafsecregtop-27t4-ala |
| Alabama | 21¢ | ±0 | $51 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-alabama-college-football-team-finish-in-t-kalshi-kxncaafsecregtop-27t3-ala |
| LSU | 38¢ | +2pp | $27 | kalshi | /markets/will-lsu-finish-in-the-top-4-in-the-southeastern-c-kalshi-kxncaafsecregtop-27t4-lsu |
| LSU | 21¢ | +1pp | $6 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-lsu-college-football-team-finish-in-the-t-kalshi-kxncaafsecregtop-27t3-lsu |
| Oklahoma | 30¢ | −9pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-oklahoma-finish-in-the-top-4-in-the-southeast-kalshi-kxncaafsecregtop-27t4-okla |
| Alabama | 50¢ | +6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-alabama-finish-in-the-top-5-in-the-southeaste-kalshi-kxncaafsecregtop-27t5-ala |
| Florida | 6¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-florida-college-football-team-finish-in-t-kalshi-kxncaafsecregtop-27t3-fla |
| Ole Miss | 11¢ | +5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-ole-miss-college-football-team-finish-in-kalshi-kxncaafsecregtop-27t3-miss |
| Oklahoma | 14¢ | −9pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-oklahoma-college-football-team-finish-in-kalshi-kxncaafsecregtop-27t3-okla |
| South Carolina | 4¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-south-carolina-college-football-team-fini-kalshi-kxncaafsecregtop-27t3-scar |
| Tennessee | 11¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-tennessee-college-football-team-finish-in-kalshi-kxncaafsecregtop-27t3-tenn |
| Texas | 39¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-texas-college-football-team-finish-in-the-kalshi-kxncaafsecregtop-27t3-tex |
| Texas A&M | 15¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-texas-am-college-football-team-finish-in-kalshi-kxncaafsecregtop-27t3-txam |
| Auburn | 3¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-auburn-finish-in-the-top-4-in-the-southeaster-kalshi-kxncaafsecregtop-27t4-aub |
| Florida | 13¢ | +6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-florida-finish-in-the-top-4-in-the-southeaste-kalshi-kxncaafsecregtop-27t4-fla |
| Ole Miss | 18¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ole-miss-finish-in-the-top-4-in-the-southeast-kalshi-kxncaafsecregtop-27t4-miss |
| Missouri | 5¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-missouri-finish-in-the-top-4-in-the-southeast-kalshi-kxncaafsecregtop-27t4-mizz |
| South Carolina | 5¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-south-carolina-finish-in-the-top-4-in-the-sou-kalshi-kxncaafsecregtop-27t4-scar |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | 14 |
| 2026-08-12 | 29 |
| 2026-08-20 | 26 |
| 2026-08-27 | 21 |

_25 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-22 · Georgia −22pp 66→44¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-25 · Georgia −21pp 81→60¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-22 · Alabama −20pp 56→36¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-26 · Alabama −17pp 38→21¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-20 · Ole Miss +17pp 13→30¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 15% probability indicates traders assess a one-in-six-or-seven chance Oklahoma finishes among the top three teams in SEC standings during the 2026 regular season. Oklahoma joined the SEC in 2024 and faces established powerhouses in conference play. The low probability reflects the competitive depth of the league, where programs like Georgia, Texas, and Alabama typically contend for top positions. The 2026 regular season itself—running from late August through late November—will directly determine final conference standings. Key performance drivers include Oklahoma's roster development in their third SEC season, injury outcomes during the season, and head-to-head results against ranked conference opponents. The resolution occurs after the regular season concludes, when final conference standings become official.

### Key factors

- Oklahoma finished 6th in SEC standings in 2025; improvement to top-3 requires significant performance gains or favorable schedule outcomes
- Georgia and Texas are priced at 20¢ each compared to Oklahoma's 5¢, suggesting Oklahoma faces steeper odds than other recent SEC additions
- SEC conference play typically includes multiple top-25 matchups; Oklahoma's non-conference schedule and strength of late-season opponents will influence final positioning
- Coaching stability and quarterback performance at Oklahoma will directly impact win-loss record and conference standing
- The 2026 regular season concludes in late November, at which point final SEC standings determine whether the condition is met or unmet

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

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