# Will at least 3 teams in the Southeastern Conference win at least 10 games in the 2026 college football regular season

> 1+ team leads at 95%, runner-up 82% across 7 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 20 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ncaafsecwins
Updated: 2026-08-10T06:20:49.761Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-07

## Headline

- Leader: 1+ team at 95%
- Runner-up: 2+ teams at 82%
- Outcomes: 7 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $253

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1+ team | 95¢ | +26pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-at-least-1-team-in-the-southeastern-conferenc-kalshi-kxncaafsecwins-26w10-1 |
| 2+ teams | 82¢ | +5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-at-least-2-teams-in-the-southeastern-conferen-kalshi-kxncaafsecwins-26w10-2 |
| 3+ teams | 55¢ | ±0 | $3 | kalshi | /markets/will-at-least-3-teams-in-the-southeastern-conferen-kalshi-kxncaafsecwins-26w10-3 |
| 8+ teams | 10¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-at-least-8-teams-in-the-southeastern-conferen-kalshi-kxncaafsecwins-26w10-8 |
| 7+ teams | 9¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-at-least-7-teams-in-the-southeastern-conferen-kalshi-kxncaafsecwins-26w10-7 |
| 4+ teams | 6¢ | +3pp | $250 | kalshi | /markets/will-at-least-4-teams-in-the-southeastern-conferen-kalshi-kxncaafsecwins-26w10-4 |
| 5+ teams | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-at-least-5-teams-in-the-southeastern-conferen-kalshi-kxncaafsecwins-26w10-5 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 1+ team | 2+ teams | 3+ teams |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | 66 | 57 | 34 |
| 2026-08-03 | — | 85 | 53 |
| 2026-08-06 | 98 | 85 | 55 |
| 2026-08-07 | 52 | 86 | 55 |
| 2026-08-10 | 95 | 82 | — |

_13 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-07 · 1+ team −46pp 98→52¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-10 · 1+ team +26pp 69→95¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-09 · 1+ team +17pp 52→69¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-09 · 2+ teams −9pp 86→77¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-10 · 2+ teams +5pp 77→82¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market assesses the likelihood that at least three SEC teams will finish the 2026 regular season with 10 or more wins. The 97% probability on the 1+ team outcome reflects high confidence that at least one SEC program will reach double-digit wins, while the 52% price on the 3+ teams outcome suggests meaningful uncertainty about whether that success will be distributed across multiple programs. The current SEC competitiveness, strength of schedule variation across conference members, and injury dynamics throughout the season are primary drivers. The resolution will be determined by final regular-season records in late November 2026, making the strength of individual team rosters and conference parity the key factors to monitor. The market's structure shows traders view one dominant team as likely, but three or more teams reaching 10 wins as a less certain outcome.

### Key factors

- SEC team roster quality and transfer portal acquisitions relative to 2025 performance levels
- Strength of schedule variation—whether typical contenders face significantly easier nonconference slates
- Historical SEC parity trends: over the past five seasons, how many SEC teams typically exceed 10 wins annually
- Injury rates among projected SEC contenders during the regular season, particularly at quarterback and offensive line positions
- Competitive balance within the conference itself—whether wins are concentrated in 2-3 programs or distributed across 4+ teams

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ncaafsecwins
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ncaafsecwins

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.