# Will Ole Miss be selected as the #5 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 8% across 13 contracts — refreshed 1 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ncaafseed
Updated: 2026-08-27T09:20:50.748Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-02-07

## Headline

- Probability: 8% (liquidity-weighted across 13 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (13 contracts)
- 24h volume: $6K

## Bound contracts (13)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami (FL) | 6¢ | +2pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-miami-fl-be-selected-as-the-1-seed-in-the-202-kalshi-kxncaafseed-27s1-mia |
| Texas | 8¢ | +1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-texas-be-selected-as-the-1-seed-in-the-2026-2-kalshi-kxncaafseed-27s1-tex |
| Notre Dame | 12¢ | −2pp | $193 | kalshi | /markets/will-notre-dame-be-selected-as-the-1-seed-in-the-2-kalshi-kxncaafseed-27s1-nd |
| Oregon | 13¢ | −15pp | $101 | kalshi | /markets/will-oregon-be-selected-as-the-1-seed-in-the-2026-kalshi-kxncaafseed-27s1-ore |
| Alabama | 11¢ | — | $16 | kalshi | /markets/will-alabama-be-selected-as-the-4-seed-in-the-2026-kalshi-kxncaafseed-27s4-ala |
| Texas Tech | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-texas-tech-be-selected-as-the-1-seed-in-the-2-kalshi-kxncaafseed-27s1-ttu |
| Ole Miss | 8¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ole-miss-be-selected-as-the-12-seed-in-the-20-kalshi-kxncaafseed-27s12-miss |
| Alabama | 8¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-alabama-be-selected-as-the-12-seed-in-the-202-kalshi-kxncaafseed-27s12-ala |
| Indiana | 6¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-indiana-be-selected-as-the-1-seed-in-the-2026-kalshi-kxncaafseed-27s1-ind |
| Oklahoma | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-oklahoma-be-selected-as-the-1-seed-in-the-202-kalshi-kxncaafseed-27s1-okla |
| Ohio St. | 10¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ohio-st-be-selected-as-the-1-seed-in-the-2026-kalshi-kxncaafseed-27s1-osu |
| Georgia | 5¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-georgia-be-selected-as-the-1-seed-in-the-2026-kalshi-kxncaafseed-27s1-uga |
| Arkansas | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-arkansas-be-selected-as-the-10-seed-in-the-20-kalshi-kxncaafseed-27s10-ark |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | 5 |
| 2026-08-12 | 11 |
| 2026-08-20 | 7 |
| 2026-08-27 | 9 |

_15 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-26 · Oregon −15pp 18→3¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-25 · Oregon −8pp 26→18¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-25 · Miami (FL) −7pp 10→3¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-25 · Texas +7pp 1→8¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-25 · Indiana +3pp 3→6¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract predicts whether Ole Miss will receive the #5 seed in the College Football Playoff for the 2026-27 season, currently priced at 3% probability. At this low level, the market reflects skepticism that Ole Miss will finish the regular season with a strong enough record and resume to claim one of the top-five spots. The main factors influencing this probability are Ole Miss's performance during the 2026 regular season (schedule difficulty, win-loss record, and head-to-head results) and how competitive the broader pool of potential #5 seeds becomes. The resolution will occur when the College Football Playoff selection committee announces the four semifinalists and #5 seed in early December 2026 following the regular season's conclusion. Markets for competing schools like Oklahoma and Texas A&M trade at similar low probabilities, suggesting the #5 seed is expected to come from a much smaller set of traditional powerhouses or unexpected breakout teams.

### Key factors

- Ole Miss's regular season record through November 2026, with particular attention to wins against ranked opponents and strength of schedule
- Conference performance and standings position, particularly in the SEC where Ole Miss competes
- Comparative strength of other potential #5-seed contenders based on their regular season records and head-to-head results
- Selection committee's historical bias toward conference champions and teams from Power Four conferences
- Whether Ole Miss experiences unexpected injuries to key players or coaching changes that would significantly alter playoff prospects

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ncaafseed
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ncaafseed

## License

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