# Will Ohio St. be a top 10 ranked team on College Football AP Poll Week 1 rankings

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 45% across 11 contracts — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ncaaftopaprank
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:50:39.235Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-09-29

## Headline

- Probability: 45% (liquidity-weighted across 11 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (11 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (11)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Notre Dame | 80¢ | +28pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-notre-dame-be-a-top-25-ranked-team-on-college-kalshi-kxncaaftopaprank-26w1t25-nd |
| Indiana | 50¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-indiana-be-a-top-25-ranked-team-on-college-fo-kalshi-kxncaaftopaprank-26w1t25-ind |
| Oregon | 85¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-oregon-be-a-top-25-ranked-team-on-college-foo-kalshi-kxncaaftopaprank-26w1t25-ore |
| Georgia | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-georgia-be-a-top-25-ranked-team-on-college-fo-kalshi-kxncaaftopaprank-26w1t25-uga |
| Michigan | 90¢ | −34pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-michigan-be-a-top-25-ranked-team-on-college-f-kalshi-kxncaaftopaprank-26w1t25-mich |
| Arizona | 11¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-arizona-be-a-top-25-ranked-team-on-college-fo-kalshi-kxncaaftopaprank-26w1t25-ariz |
| BYU | 15¢ | +12pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-byu-be-a-top-25-ranked-team-on-college-footba-kalshi-kxncaaftopaprank-26w1t25-byu |
| Houston | 79¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-houston-be-a-top-25-ranked-team-on-college-fo-kalshi-kxncaaftopaprank-26w1t25-hou |
| Missouri | 17¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-missouri-be-a-top-25-ranked-team-on-college-f-kalshi-kxncaaftopaprank-26w1t25-mizz |
| SMU | 40¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-smu-be-a-top-25-ranked-team-on-college-footba-kalshi-kxncaaftopaprank-26w1t25-smu |
| Washington | 25¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-washington-be-a-top-25-ranked-team-on-college-kalshi-kxncaaftopaprank-26w1t25-wash |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | 67 |
| 2026-05-02 | 49 |
| 2026-05-09 | 1 |

_9 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-08 · Notre Dame +28pp 52→80¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · BYU +12pp 1→13¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects the chance that Ohio State finishes among the top 10 teams in the initial College Football AP Poll for the 2026 season. The 58% estimate sits near even odds, suggesting substantial uncertainty about the Buckeyes' standing heading into the season. Ohio State's ranking will depend primarily on preseason expectations around returning talent, coaching stability, and strength of schedule. The related market for Ohio State being ranked #1 shows lower probability at 44%, indicating most forecasters expect them to be strong but not the consensus top team. Final preseason rankings typically emerge in July-August, which would significantly clarify the market. Historical performance, recruiting class strength, and any roster changes from transfers or departures will heavily influence how voters calibrate Ohio State's week-one placement relative to other traditional powerhouses.

### Key factors

- Ohio State's returning quarterback and offensive skill position talent relative to competing programs
- Defection or addition of key players through transfer portal activity between now and preseason rankings release
- Preseason expectation-setting by major sports media outlets and coaching polls in July-August
- Strength of Ohio State's non-conference schedule, which impacts voting perception of team quality
- Head coaching continuity and any significant staff changes that signal program direction

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ncaaftopaprank
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ncaaftopaprank

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.