# Will Indiana be selected as a top 4 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 20% across 16 contracts — refreshed 47 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ncaaftopseed
Updated: 2026-08-27T07:21:48.165Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-02-07

## Headline

- Probability: 20% (liquidity-weighted across 16 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (16 contracts)
- 24h volume: $859

## Bound contracts (16)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami (FL) | 19¢ | +8pp | $500 | kalshi | /markets/will-miami-fl-be-selected-as-a-top-4-seed-in-the-2-kalshi-kxncaaftopseed-27t4-mia |
| Auburn | 10¢ | — | $250 | kalshi | /markets/will-auburn-be-selected-as-a-top-4-seed-in-the-202-kalshi-kxncaaftopseed-27t4-aub |
| Georgia | 26¢ | +1pp | $54 | kalshi | /markets/will-georgia-be-selected-as-a-top-4-seed-in-the-20-kalshi-kxncaaftopseed-27t4-uga |
| Oregon | 25¢ | +1pp | $50 | kalshi | /markets/will-oregon-be-selected-as-a-top-4-seed-in-the-202-kalshi-kxncaaftopseed-27t4-ore |
| Oklahoma | 5¢ | ±0 | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-oklahoma-be-selected-as-a-top-4-seed-in-the-2-kalshi-kxncaaftopseed-27t4-okla |
| Alabama | 6¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-alabama-be-selected-as-a-top-4-seed-in-the-20-kalshi-kxncaaftopseed-27t4-ala |
| Indiana | 25¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-indiana-be-selected-as-a-top-4-seed-in-the-20-kalshi-kxncaaftopseed-27t4-ind |
| LSU | 5¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-lsu-be-selected-as-a-top-4-seed-in-the-2026-2-kalshi-kxncaaftopseed-27t4-lsu |
| Michigan | 13¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-michigan-be-selected-as-a-top-4-seed-in-the-2-kalshi-kxncaaftopseed-27t4-mich |
| Ole Miss | 4¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ole-miss-be-selected-as-a-top-4-seed-in-the-2-kalshi-kxncaaftopseed-27t4-miss |
| Notre Dame | 50¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-notre-dame-be-selected-as-a-top-4-seed-in-the-kalshi-kxncaaftopseed-27t4-nd |
| Ohio St. | 38¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ohio-st-be-selected-as-a-top-4-seed-in-the-20-kalshi-kxncaaftopseed-27t4-osu |
| Texas | 22¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-texas-be-selected-as-a-top-4-seed-in-the-2026-kalshi-kxncaaftopseed-27t4-tex |
| Texas Tech | 21¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-texas-tech-be-selected-as-a-top-4-seed-in-the-kalshi-kxncaaftopseed-27t4-ttu |
| Texas A&M | 5¢ | +5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-texas-am-be-selected-as-a-top-4-seed-in-the-2-kalshi-kxncaaftopseed-27t4-txam |
| Washington | 44¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-washington-be-selected-as-a-top-4-seed-in-the-kalshi-kxncaaftopseed-27t4-wash |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | 19 |
| 2026-08-13 | 21 |
| 2026-08-20 | 17 |
| 2026-08-27 | 23 |

_22 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-21 · Notre Dame +14pp 40→54¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-21 · Georgia +12pp 18→30¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-23 · Texas −12pp 35→23¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-20 · Texas Tech −12pp 30→18¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-20 · LSU −11pp 19→8¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects market assessment that Indiana has a 17% chance of earning a top-four seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff. The market currently prices Indiana below several peer programs, suggesting skepticism about the program's competitive trajectory or strength of schedule. Key drivers include Indiana's actual win-loss record, conference standing, and strength of schedule as the season unfolds. The 2026 college football season, which runs from September through December, will determine Indiana's final ranking relative to other contenders. The playoff selection decision itself occurs in early December 2026 after the regular season concludes, making that the hard resolution point for this market. Market participants appear to be factoring in Indiana's historical playoff accessibility relative to emerging contenders like Texas and Notre Dame.

### Key factors

- Indiana's actual regular season record and final conference standing as of early December 2026
- Quality of Indiana's non-conference schedule and overall strength of schedule compared to competing programs
- Indiana's performance against ranked opponents and results in decisive conference games
- The relative strength of the Big Ten conference in 2026 and how many teams from the conference earn top-four seeds
- Injuries to key players or coaching changes that materially affect Indiana's competitiveness during the season

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ncaaftopseed
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ncaaftopseed

## License

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