# Will Notre Dame go undefeated in the 2026 College Football regular season

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 13% across 11 contracts — refreshed 32 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ncaafundefeated
Updated: 2026-07-27T07:20:49.033Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-28

## Headline

- Probability: 13% (liquidity-weighted across 11 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (11 contracts)
- 24h volume: $7K

## Bound contracts (11)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia | 15¢ | +2pp | $5K | kalshi | /markets/will-georgia-go-undefeated-in-the-2026-college-foo-kalshi-kxncaafundefeated-26-uga |
| Texas Tech | 24¢ | ±0 | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-texas-tech-go-undefeated-in-the-2026-college-kalshi-kxncaafundefeated-26-ttu |
| Notre Dame | 33¢ | −1pp | $142 | kalshi | /markets/will-notre-dame-go-undefeated-in-the-2026-college-kalshi-kxncaafundefeated-26-nd |
| Ohio St. | 8¢ | ±0 | $52 | kalshi | /markets/will-ohio-st-go-undefeated-in-the-2026-college-foo-kalshi-kxncaafundefeated-26-osu |
| Miami (FL) | 15¢ | −1pp | $9 | kalshi | /markets/will-miami-fl-go-undefeated-in-the-2026-college-fo-kalshi-kxncaafundefeated-26-mia |
| Oregon | 11¢ | −1pp | $6 | kalshi | /markets/will-oregon-go-undefeated-in-the-2026-college-foot-kalshi-kxncaafundefeated-26-ore |
| Alabama | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-alabama-go-undefeated-in-the-2026-college-foo-kalshi-kxncaafundefeated-26-ala |
| Indiana | 15¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-indiana-go-undefeated-in-the-2026-college-foo-kalshi-kxncaafundefeated-26-ind |
| Iowa | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-iowa-go-undefeated-in-the-2026-college-footba-kalshi-kxncaafundefeated-26-iowa |
| LSU | 5¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-lsu-go-undefeated-in-the-2026-college-footbal-kalshi-kxncaafundefeated-26-lsu |
| Penn St. | 6¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-penn-st-go-undefeated-in-the-2026-college-foo-kalshi-kxncaafundefeated-26-psu |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-27 | 14 |
| 2026-07-13 | 11 |
| 2026-07-19 | 30 |
| 2026-07-27 | 18 |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-25 · Miami (FL) −7pp 23→16¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-24 · Notre Dame +4pp 31→35¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects the chance Notre Dame completes a full regular season without any losses in 2026. The 13% estimate sits between several peer programs, with Texas trading at 6% and Georgia at 13%, suggesting moderate skepticism about any team running the table. Undefeated seasons depend primarily on roster talent and depth relative to schedule strength—Notre Dame's spring recruiting outcomes and transfer portal additions will determine offensive firepower and defensive consistency. The season begins in late August 2026, making preseason performance in August scrimmages and early-season matchups the critical data points that will sharpen this probability significantly. Current trading volume is minimal, indicating limited market attention to this specific contract ahead of the season's start.

### Key factors

- Notre Dame's strength of schedule in 2026, particularly ranked non-conference opponents and conference slate difficulty
- Quarterback performance and offensive line continuity from previous season
- Defensive secondary depth and pass-rush capability relative to opponents' offensive firepower
- Historical baseline: fewer than 10 FBS teams have gone undefeated in any season since 2000, with only three doing so in the last decade
- Early-season performance against top-20 competition in August-September will provide direct evidence of team quality versus projection models

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ncaafundefeated
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ncaafundefeated

## License

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