# Will Texas Tech go undefeated at home in the 2026 college football regular season

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 28% across 20 contracts — refreshed 1 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ncaafundefeatedhome
Updated: 2026-09-22T02:20:53.096Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-08

## Headline

- Probability: 28% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $49

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Tech | 47¢ | −16pp | $35 | kalshi | /markets/will-texas-tech-go-undefeated-at-home-in-the-2026-kalshi-kxncaafundefeatedhome-27-ttu |
| Oklahoma | 5¢ | −7pp | $12 | kalshi | /markets/will-oklahoma-go-undefeated-at-home-in-the-2026-co-kalshi-kxncaafundefeatedhome-27-okla |
| Notre Dame | 33¢ | −10pp | $2 | kalshi | /markets/will-notre-dame-go-undefeated-at-home-in-the-2026-kalshi-kxncaafundefeatedhome-27-nd |
| Ohio St. | 74¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ohio-st-go-undefeated-at-home-in-the-2026-col-kalshi-kxncaafundefeatedhome-27-osu |
| Texas | 43¢ | −10pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-texas-go-undefeated-at-home-in-the-2026-colle-kalshi-kxncaafundefeatedhome-27-tex |
| Indiana | 29¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-indiana-go-undefeated-at-home-in-the-2026-col-kalshi-kxncaafundefeatedhome-27-ind |
| Oregon | 37¢ | +20pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-oregon-go-undefeated-at-home-in-the-2026-coll-kalshi-kxncaafundefeatedhome-27-ore |
| Georgia | 47¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-georgia-go-undefeated-at-home-in-the-2026-col-kalshi-kxncaafundefeatedhome-27-uga |
| LSU | 14¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-lsu-go-undefeated-at-home-in-the-2026-college-kalshi-kxncaafundefeatedhome-27-lsu |
| Texas A&M | 10¢ | −17pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-texas-am-go-undefeated-at-home-in-the-2026-co-kalshi-kxncaafundefeatedhome-27-txam |
| Miami (FL) | 64¢ | −9pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-miami-fl-go-undefeated-at-home-in-the-2026-co-kalshi-kxncaafundefeatedhome-27-mia |
| Alabama | 3¢ | −32pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-alabama-go-undefeated-at-home-in-the-2026-col-kalshi-kxncaafundefeatedhome-27-ala |
| USC | 3¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-usc-go-undefeated-at-home-in-the-2026-college-kalshi-kxncaafundefeatedhome-27-usc |
| Ole Miss | 30¢ | +16pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ole-miss-go-undefeated-at-home-in-the-2026-co-kalshi-kxncaafundefeatedhome-27-miss |
| Michigan | 27¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-michigan-go-undefeated-at-home-in-the-2026-co-kalshi-kxncaafundefeatedhome-27-mich |
| Tennessee | 18¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tennessee-go-undefeated-at-home-in-the-2026-c-kalshi-kxncaafundefeatedhome-27-tenn |
| Utah | 16¢ | −10pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-utah-go-undefeated-at-home-in-the-2026-colleg-kalshi-kxncaafundefeatedhome-27-utah |
| Penn St. | 27¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-penn-st-go-undefeated-at-home-in-the-2026-col-kalshi-kxncaafundefeatedhome-27-psu |
| Auburn | 22¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-auburn-go-undefeated-at-home-in-the-2026-coll-kalshi-kxncaafundefeatedhome-27-aub |
| Florida | 6¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-florida-go-undefeated-at-home-in-the-2026-col-kalshi-kxncaafundefeatedhome-27-fla |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | 24 |
| 2026-09-08 | 25 |
| 2026-09-17 | 34 |
| 2026-09-19 | 28 |

_24 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-09-17 · Texas +35pp 20→55¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-19 · Alabama −32pp 36→4¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-17 · Alabama −27pp 36→9¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-18 · Alabama +27pp 9→36¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-18 · Oregon −26pp 44→18¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability represents whether Texas Tech will win every home football game during the 2026 regular season. At 22%, the market suggests it's unlikely but not impossible. Home field advantage matters in college football, but Texas Tech must avoid losses to visiting opponents over a full season—typically 6-7 games. The probability reflects the team's recent competitiveness, conference strength, and historical consistency at home. Factors that could shift this include coaching staff changes, roster depth, opponent scheduling difficulty, and early-season home game results. Resolution occurs in late November 2026 when the regular season concludes, with each home loss eliminating the possibility. Texas Tech's home undefeated streak would be notable but rarer than most individual rivalry upsets or conference tournament performances.

### Key factors

- Texas Tech's historical home win rate and record against conference opponents at Jones AT&T Stadium over recent seasons
- 2026 home schedule composition—strength of visiting opponents and clustering of ranked teams in Lubbock games
- Roster continuity and quarterback stability heading into 2026, affecting both offensive consistency and defensive performance
- Comparison to peer programs: Georgia trades at 34¢ while most other Power/mid-major programs trade below 15¢, suggesting relative confidence in Texas Tech
- Early home game outcomes (September-October 2026) will provide first concrete data to update from current 22% baseline

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

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