# Will Ohio St. win at least 12 games this season

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 40% across 14 contracts — refreshed 13 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ncaafwins
Updated: 2026-05-28T20:20:07.138Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-20

## Headline

- Probability: 40% (liquidity-weighted across 14 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (14 contracts)
- 24h volume: $129

## Bound contracts (14)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10+ wins | 45¢ | +7pp | $51 | kalshi | /markets/will-texas-win-at-least-10-games-this-season-10-wi-kalshi-kxncaafwins-26tex-10 |
| 12 wins | 28¢ | −1pp | $32 | kalshi | /markets/will-notre-dame-win-at-least-12-games-this-season-kalshi-kxncaafwins-26nd-12 |
| 9+ wins | 41¢ | +32pp | $22 | kalshi | /markets/will-penn-st-win-at-least-9-games-this-season-9-wi-kalshi-kxncaafwins-26psu-9 |
| 7+ wins | 22¢ | ±0 | $8 | kalshi | /markets/will-oklahoma-st-win-at-least-7-games-this-season-kalshi-kxncaafwins-26okst-7 |
| 7+ wins | 35¢ | ±0 | $6 | kalshi | /markets/will-baylor-win-at-least-7-games-this-season-7-win-kalshi-kxncaafwins-26bay-7 |
| 9+ wins | 25¢ | +3pp | $6 | kalshi | /markets/will-ole-miss-win-at-least-9-games-this-season-9-w-kalshi-kxncaafwins-26miss-9 |
| 11+ wins | 51¢ | +3pp | $4 | kalshi | /markets/will-texas-tech-win-at-least-11-games-this-season-kalshi-kxncaafwins-26ttu-11 |
| 10+ wins | 25¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-alabama-win-at-least-10-games-this-season-10-kalshi-kxncaafwins-26ala-10 |
| 11+ wins | 5¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-alabama-win-at-least-11-games-this-season-11-kalshi-kxncaafwins-26ala-11 |
| 6+ wins | 81¢ | +13pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-alabama-win-at-least-6-games-this-season-6-wi-kalshi-kxncaafwins-26ala-6 |
| 7+ wins | 71¢ | +14pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-alabama-win-at-least-7-games-this-season-7-wi-kalshi-kxncaafwins-26ala-7 |
| 8+ wins | 71¢ | +5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-alabama-win-at-least-8-games-this-season-8-wi-kalshi-kxncaafwins-26ala-8 |
| 9+ wins | 51¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-alabama-win-at-least-9-games-this-season-9-wi-kalshi-kxncaafwins-26ala-9 |
| 10+ wins | 7¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-arizona-win-at-least-10-games-this-season-10-kalshi-kxncaafwins-26ariz-10 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | 25 |
| 2026-05-14 | 49 |
| 2026-05-21 | 29 |
| 2026-05-27 | 48 |

_16 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-27 · 9+ wins +32pp 9→41¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-27 · 7+ wins +14pp 57→71¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-27 · 6+ wins +13pp 68→81¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-27 · 10+ wins +7pp 39→46¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-26 · 10+ wins +5pp 34→39¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

The 47% probability reflects a near-coin-flip assessment of whether Ohio State will achieve at least 12 wins during the 2026 college football season. This level suggests meaningful uncertainty about the team's performance trajectory. The probability is likely influenced by Ohio State's preseason roster composition, strength of schedule, and recent historical performance patterns. Key variables affecting this outcome include injury status to key players heading into the season, performance in non-conference games that establish baseline competitiveness, and results in Big Ten competition. The most significant near-term catalyst would be the team's performance through the first 4-5 games of the season, which would clarify actual competitive level versus preseason expectations and inform whether reaching 12 wins remains plausible or has become substantially more difficult.

### Key factors

- Ohio State's win-loss record through Week 5 of the season, which will indicate actual performance against stated competition level
- Cumulative injuries to offensive or defensive starters, as depth impacts ability to sustain 12-win pace across full schedule
- Performance in marquee non-conference games or early Big Ten matchups that test whether preseason projections are tracking
- Strength of schedule composition—specific opponents faced in months 2-3 of season that determine win-probability math for 12-win threshold
- Historical Ohio State program baseline (typical win totals under current coaching regime) versus market's implicit expectations

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ncaafwins
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ncaafwins

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