# Will Richmond win the 2026 Division I Men's College Lacrosse Championship

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 10% across 9 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ncaalaxfinal
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:40.952Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-09

## Headline

- Probability: 10% (liquidity-weighted across 9 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $18K

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia | 14¢ | +2pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/will-virginia-win-the-2026-division-i-mens-college-kalshi-kxncaalaxfinal-26-uva |
| Syracuse | 5¢ | +1pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/will-syracuse-win-the-2026-division-i-mens-college-kalshi-kxncaalaxfinal-26-syr |
| Richmond | 7¢ | +1pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-richmond-win-the-2026-division-i-mens-college-kalshi-kxncaalaxfinal-26-rich |
| Penn State | 5¢ | −1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-penn-state-win-the-2026-division-i-mens-colle-kalshi-kxncaalaxfinal-26-psu |
| Notre Dame | 21¢ | ±0 | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-notre-dame-win-the-2026-division-i-mens-colle-kalshi-kxncaalaxfinal-26-nd |
| Princeton | 26¢ | +1pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-princeton-win-the-2026-division-i-mens-colleg-kalshi-kxncaalaxfinal-26-prin |
| North Carolina | 7¢ | +1pp | $763 | kalshi | /markets/will-north-carolina-win-the-2026-division-i-mens-c-kalshi-kxncaalaxfinal-26-unc |
| Cornell | 5¢ | ±0 | $400 | kalshi | /markets/will-cornell-win-the-2026-division-i-mens-college-kalshi-kxncaalaxfinal-26-corn |
| Duke | 4¢ | −1pp | $93 | kalshi | /markets/will-duke-win-the-2026-division-i-mens-college-lac-kalshi-kxncaalaxfinal-26-duke |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 11 |
| 2026-04-25 | 9 |
| 2026-05-02 | 11 |
| 2026-05-08 | 21 |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Princeton +7pp 18→25¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Syracuse −4pp 10→6¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Virginia +3pp 9→12¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Princeton +3pp 14→17¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects market participants' assessment that Richmond has approximately a 1-in-9 chance of winning the NCAA Division I Men's College Lacrosse Championship in 2026. Richmond is a competitive lacrosse program but faces strong traditional contenders like Princeton (currently priced at 16%) and other established programs. The 11% probability suggests the market views Richmond as a legitimate challenger rather than a longshot, likely reflecting recent tournament performance and roster strength. The championship will be determined by tournament play culminating in the NCAA final, typically held in late May. Key factors affecting this probability include Richmond's regular season performance through spring 2026, their seeding in the NCAA tournament, injuries to key players, and head-to-head matchups against top-seeded programs during the tournament itself.

### Key factors

- Richmond's regular season record and RPI ranking heading into the NCAA tournament selection period in May 2026
- Comparative roster depth and returning All-Americans at Richmond versus higher-priced competitors like Princeton and Syracuse
- Richmond's historical tournament performance and win rates in elimination games under tournament pressure
- Strength of schedule and common opponents that would indicate relative competitive positioning among elite programs
- Injury status of Richmond's key offensive and defensive players entering the tournament window

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ncaalaxfinal
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ncaalaxfinal

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