# Will Duke be #1 ranked team on Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 rankings

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 24% across 10 contracts — refreshed 6 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ncaambaprank
Updated: 2026-05-03T17:20:52.675Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-29

## Headline

- Probability: 24% (liquidity-weighted across 10 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (10 contracts)
- 24h volume: $855

## Bound contracts (10)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida | 46¢ | — | $595 | kalshi | /markets/will-florida-be-the-1-ranked-team-on-mens-college-kalshi-kxncaambaprank-26w1r1-fla |
| Duke | 33¢ | −3pp | $124 | kalshi | /markets/will-duke-be-1-ranked-team-on-mens-college-basketb-kalshi-kxncaambaprank-26w1r1-duke |
| Michigan | 13¢ | — | $105 | kalshi | /markets/will-michigan-be-the-2-ranked-team-on-mens-college-kalshi-kxncaambaprank-26w1rk2-mich |
| Michigan | 12¢ | −5pp | $16 | kalshi | /markets/will-michigan-be-1-ranked-team-on-mens-college-bas-kalshi-kxncaambaprank-26w1r1-mich |
| Florida | 35¢ | — | $12 | kalshi | /markets/will-florida-be-the-2-ranked-team-on-mens-college-kalshi-kxncaambaprank-26w1rk2-fla |
| Michigan | 45¢ | +1pp | $2 | kalshi | /markets/will-michigan-be-the-3-ranked-team-on-mens-college-kalshi-kxncaambaprank-26w1r3-mich |
| Duke | 26¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-duke-be-the-2-ranked-team-on-mens-college-bas-kalshi-kxncaambaprank-26w1rk2-duke |
| Duke | 18¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-duke-be-the-3-ranked-team-on-mens-college-bas-kalshi-kxncaambaprank-26w1r3-duke |
| Illinois | 7¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-illinois-be-the-3-ranked-team-on-mens-college-kalshi-kxncaambaprank-26w1r3-ill |
| Florida | 6¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-florida-be-the-3-ranked-team-on-mens-college-kalshi-kxncaambaprank-26w1r3-fla |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-21 | 12 |
| 2026-04-26 | 29 |
| 2026-05-03 | 36 |

_13 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-27 · Duke +6pp 38→44¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-01 · Duke −5pp 41→36¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-01 · Michigan −5pp 22→17¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Duke −3pp 36→33¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-29 · Michigan +3pp 19→22¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability represents the estimated chance that Duke University will be ranked #1 in the AP Poll's first weekly college basketball rankings of the 2026-27 season. At 23%, Duke is considered a competitive but not favored contender for the top ranking. The preseason outlook depends primarily on how Duke's roster development progresses through spring and summer training, roster retention, and transfer portal activity relative to other traditional powerhouses. The AP Poll Week 1 rankings will be released in late October 2026 following the start of the college basketball season, which represents the key moment when this prediction resolves. Duke's path to #1 requires strong offseason performance metrics and favorable comparisons to other elite programs entering the season.

### Key factors

- Duke's roster composition after transfer portal activity closes and spring recruitment concludes, compared to traditional basketball powerhouses
- Quality and experience level of Duke's returning players, particularly at guard and forward positions critical to elite-level play
- Preseason consensus ranking from major sports publications and expert polls, which typically align closely with Week 1 AP rankings
- Recruitment and commitment of elite high school prospects through June-July 2026, affecting perceived depth and talent
- Performance of competing programs like Florida, Kansas, and other traditional contenders in the same evaluation period

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ncaambaprank
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ncaambaprank

## License

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